Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is a constant endeavor, with various organizations diligently gauging voting intentions. The results of these polls are meticulously displayed within this article. You'll find that most of the polling companies featured are proud members of the British Polling Council, adhering strictly to its disclosure rules. The timeframe for these opinion polls stretches from the previous general election on July 4th, 2024, right up to the present day.
Mark your calendars, as the next general election is mandated to take place no later than August 15th, 2029, as per the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. This Act dictates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after its inception, unless dissolved earlier at the Prime Minister's request. Polling day then follows within twenty-five working days.
### Graphical Summary
The chart you see below offers a visual snapshot of opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are smoothed using local regressions, known as LOESS. On the left, a bar represents the previous election, while on the right, a bar marks the absolute latest possible date for the next election.
### National Poll Results
It's important to note that most opinion polls do not specifically cover Northern Ireland, as its major political parties differ from those in the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is clearly marked in the tables below within the "area" column. "GB" signifies Great Britain – that's England, Scotland, and Wales – while "UK" encompasses the entire United Kingdom. Keep in mind that Plaid Cymru only fields candidates in Wales, and the Scottish National Party exclusively in Scotland. Due to rounding, the total figures may not always perfectly add up to one hundred percent.
### 2025
### 2024
### Seat Projections
Remember, 326 seats are the magic number needed for a majority.
### MRP Polls
### POLARIS Projections
POLARIS, the Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System, is a groundbreaking model developed by J.L. Partners. It leverages council by-elections to forecast election outcomes. Since January, all models have been integrated with representative survey data, with the data adjusted to reflect the most recent national polling from pollsters.
### Sub-national Poll Results
### Northern Ireland
### Scotland
### Wales
### 100 Most Rural Constituencies
In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey specifically focusing on the 100 constituencies identified as the "most rural."
### Northern England and the Midlands
In April 2025, Survation undertook a survey that specifically surveyed Northern England and the Midlands.
### London
### Hypothetical Scenarios
### Different Conservative Party Leaders: Voting Intention and Seat Projection
For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted an MRP opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign. This poll sought to understand how the general public would vote if either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected as the leader of the Conservatives.
### Tactical Voting Scenarios
In February 2025, YouGov conducted polling to explore scenarios where only two parties appear to have a realistic chance of winning a particular constituency.
### Including 16-17 Year-olds
In July 2025, the Government announced its intention to lower the voting age to sixteen. Following this announcement, some pollsters began conducting polls that included 16 and 17-year-olds, even though the voting age had not yet been officially reduced. Some pollsters also conducted surveys exclusively among this younger demographic, or provided an oversample of this group.
### With Your Party
Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana have declared their intention to establish a new political party, provisionally known as "Your Party" until a permanent name is chosen. Before this announcement, polling was conducted to gauge public opinion on the concept of a hypothetical new party. Since the official announcement, further polling has taken place, though the party has not yet been featured in headline voting intention polls.
### See Also
* Leadership approval opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
* Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
* Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
* Opinion polling for the next Senedd election
### Notes
### References
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.
The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.
== Graphical summary ==
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
== National poll results ==
Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru stand candidates only in Wales and the Scottish National Party stand candidates only in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures might not add up to 100%.
=== 2025 ===
=== 2024 ===
== Seat projections ==
326 seats needed for a majority.
=== MRP polls ===
=== POLARIS projections ===
Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes. All models from January onwards are combined with a representative survey data, with the data used shifted to reflect the pollsters' most recent national polling.
== Sub-national poll results ==
=== Northern Ireland ===
=== Scotland ===
=== Wales ===
=== 100 most rural constituencies ===
In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.
=== Northern England and the Midlands ===
In April 2025, Survation conducted a survey of Northern England and the Midlands.
=== London ===
== Hypothetical scenarios ==
=== Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection ===
For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.
=== Tactical voting scenarios ===
In February 2025, YouGov conducted polling on scenarios wherein only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency.
=== Including 16-17 year-olds ===
In July 2025, the Government announced their intention to reduce the voting age to 16. Following this, some pollsters conducted polling including 16- and 17-year-olds, although the voting age has not yet been reduced.
Some pollsters also conducted polling solely among 16- and 17-year-olds, or broke out an oversample of this group.
=== With Your Party ===
Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana have stated their intention to found a new political party, provisionally referred to as "Your Party" pending the adoption of a permanent name. Prior to that announcement, polling was carried out about the idea for a hypothetical new party. Since the announcement, more polling has been carried out, but the party has not yet been included in headline voting intention polls.
== See also ==
Leadership approval opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
Opinion polling for the next Senedd election
== Notes ==
== References ==
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