For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
 
Nominee TBD James Talarico
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

John Cornyn
Republican


The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. State representative James Talarico is the Democratic nominee, after winning the March primary and defeating Jasmine Crockett. The Republican nominee will be determined in a runoff election between four-term incumbent John Cornyn and state attorney general Ken Paxton on May 26, 2026, after no candidate secured a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988.

Republican primary

Background

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.[1][2][3][4]

The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate.[5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads.[6][7] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his.[8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary.[9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020.[10]

The election also comes amidst efforts by the state Republican primary to close its primary election to only registered members. Legislation aimed at allowing closed primaries failed in the legislature, leading to the party suing the state, alleging the existing law violates the First Amendment.[11] Paxton, despite being the state's attorney general, refused to defend the existing law in court, drawing criticism from those who believe he would benefit electorally from a closed primary.[12]

Campaign

Paxton led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[13] This led many Republicans to publicly back Cornyn, while Senate Republican leaders urged Donald Trump to endorse him.[14] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race.[15] Hunt entered the race in late 2025, further scrambling the race and increasing the chance of a runoff.[16]

All three candidates have jockeyed for the endorsement of Donald Trump, making their support for him and his agenda major parts of their campaign platforms, but Trump did not endorse a candidate, instead saying he supports "all three".[17][18] Cornyn has maintained a substantial fundraising lead over the other candidates throughout the race, spending much of it attacking Paxton.[19] Early three-way polling has been very narrow, usually with Cornyn and Paxton making the runoff and no candidate close to winning outright.[20] While campaigning, all three have tapped into Islamophobic sentiment in their advertisements and actions, with Cornyn and Paxton specifically targeting the EPIC City development in Collin County with investigations and lawsuits.[21][22][23]

Cornyn led Paxton narrowly in the primary election, garnering 41.9% of the vote to Paxton's 40.7%, while Hunt placed a distant third with 13.5% of the vote.[24] In the days prior to the March 3 primary, Paxton had suggested he would be able to win outright and prevent a runoff from taking place.[25] Despite this, Cornyn overperformed in the primary election in what The Texas Tribune described as a "better-than-expected showing".[25] Rolando Garcia, a member of the State Republican Executive Committee who supported Hunt in the primary and plans to vote for Paxton in the runoff, said that "the Paxton team has to be alarmed" by the result.[25]

On March 5, 2026, The Atlantic reported that Trump advisers expect the president to endorse Cornyn in the runoff election after his unexpectedly strong performance in the first round of voting.[26]

Candidates

Advanced to runoff

  • John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. senator (2002–present)[27]
  • Ken Paxton, attorney general of Texas (2015–present)[28]

Eliminated in primary

  • John Adefope[29]
  • Anna Bender, IT analyst[29][30]
  • Virgil Bierschwale, software developer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[31][32]
  • Sara Canady, retired judge and former Wilson County Justice of the Peace[29][30]
  • Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present)[33]
  • Gulrez "Gus" Khan, entrepreneur, candidate for Texas's 32nd congressional district in 2024, and candidate for mayor of Lubbock in 2022[31][32]

Withdrawn

  • Alexander Duncan, police officer[34]
  • Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board[29][35]
  • Barrett McNabb, chiropractic business owner (running for U.S. House)[36]
  • Tony Schmoker, realtor[29][31]
  • Leo Wyatt[29][31]

Endorsements

John Cornyn
Executive branch officials
  • Susan Combs, former assistant secretary of the interior (2019–2020)[37]
  • Donald Evans, former secretary of commerce (2001–2005)[38]
  • Rick Perry, former secretary of energy (2017–2019) and former governor of Texas (2000–2015)[39]
  • Pamela Willeford, former ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2003–2006)[37]
U.S. senators
  • John Barrasso, Senate Majority Whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)[40]
  • Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[40]
  • Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present)[41]
  • Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[40]
  • Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[42]
  • Phil Gramm, former Texas (1985–2002)[43]
  • Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[44]
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison, former Texas (1993–2013)[45]
  • Lindsey Graham, South Carolina (2003–present)[41]
  • Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[40]
  • Pete Ricketts, Nebraska (2023–present)[42]
  • Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present)[44]
  • Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[42]
  • Tim Sheehy, Montana (2025–present)[42]
  • John Thune, Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[46]
  • Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[40]
U.S. representatives
  • Bill Archer, former TX-07 (1971–2001)[47]
  • Henry Bonilla, former TX-23 (1993–2007)[47]
  • Kevin Brady, former TX-08 (1997–2023)[47]
  • Michael Burgess, former TX-26 (2003–2025)[47]
  • Quico Canseco, former TX-23 (2011–2013)[47]
  • Mike Conaway, former TX-11 (2005–2021)[47]
  • John Culberson, former TX-07 (2001–2019)[47]
  • Tom DeLay, former House Majority Leader (2003–2005) from TX-22 (1985–2006)[47]
  • Jake Ellzey, TX-06 (2021–present)[48]
  • Bill Flores, former TX-17 (2011–2021)[47]
  • Craig Goldman, TX-12 (2025–present)[49]
  • Jeb Hensarling, former TX-05 (2003–2019)[47]
  • French Hill, AR-02 (2015–present)[40]
  • Kenny Marchant, former TX-24 (2005–2021)[47]
  • Michael McCaul, TX-10 (2005–present)[37]
  • Pete Olson, former TX-22 (2009–2021)[47]
  • Ted Poe, former TX-02 (2005–2019)[47]
  • Lamar Smith, former TX-21 (1987–2019)[47]
  • Mac Thornberry, former TX-13 (1995–2021)[47]
Statewide officials
  • Jeff Boyd, former justice of the Texas Supreme Court (2012–2025)[37]
  • Steve McCraw, former director of the Texas Department of Public Safety (2009–2024)[50]
  • Harriet O'Neill, former justice of the Texas Supreme Court (1999–2010)[37]
State legislators
  • 5 state representatives[a]
  • 8 former state representatives[b]
Local officials
  • Jim Darling, former mayor of McAllen (2013–2021) (Democratic)[54]
  • J.E. "Eddie" Guerra, sheriff of Hidalgo County (2014–present) (Democratic)[50]
  • Mattie Parker, mayor of Fort Worth (2021–present)[55]
  • Dan Pope, former mayor of Lubbock (2016–2022)[52]
  • Betsy Price, former mayor of Fort Worth (2011–2021)[55]
  • Pete Saenz, former mayor of Laredo (2014–2022) (Democratic)[54]
  • Javier Villalobos, mayor of McAllen (2021–present)[54]
Individuals
  • Ayaan Hirsi Ali, conservative activist and former member of the Dutch House of Representatives (2003–2006)[56]
  • Max Lucado, pastor[57]
Labor unions
  • Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas[58]
  • National Border Patrol Council[44]
Organizations
  • AIPAC[59]
  • ClearPath Foundation[60]
  • National Federation of Independent Business[61]
  • National Association of Realtors[62]
  • National Association of Home Builders[63]
  • National Republican Senatorial Committee[64]
  • Republican Jewish Coalition[65]
  • Texas Alliance for Life[66]
  • Texas Association of Manufacturers[63]
  • Texas Association of Realtors[62]
  • Texas Chemistry Council[63]
  • Texas Farm Bureau[67]
  • Texas Homebuilders Association[63]
  • Senate Leadership Fund[42]
  • Texas Medical Association[68]
  • Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association[67]
  • United States Chamber of Commerce[69]
Newspapers
  • Austin American-Statesman[70]
  • Dallas Morning News[71]
  • Fort Worth Star-Telegram[72]
  • Houston Chronicle[73]
  • San Antonio Express-News[74]
Ken Paxton
U.S. representatives
  • Lance Gooden, TX-05 (2019–present)[64]
  • Troy Nehls, TX-22 (2021–present)[64]
State legislators
  • Matt Rinaldi, former state representative from the 115th district (2015–2019) and former chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024)[75]
  • Anthony Kern, former state senator from Arizona's 27th district (2023–2025)[76]
Individuals
  • Dan K. Eberhart, businessman[77]
  • Ted Nugent, guitarist[78]
  • John Rich, singer[79][better source needed]
  • Randy Quaid, actor[80]
Organizations
  • Republicans for National Renewal[81]
  • Gun Owners of America[82]
  • Texas Gun Rights[83]
  • Turning Point Action[84]
Wesley Hunt
U.S. representatives
  • Eli Crane, AZ-02 (2023–present)[85]
Organizations
  • Austin Republican Liberty Caucus[86]
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators
  • Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[44]
U.S. representatives
  • Brian Babin, TX-36 (2015–present)[40]
  • Keith Self, TX-03 (2023–present)[40]
Labor unions

First round

Fundraising

Italics indicate withdrawn candidate

Campaign finance reports as of February 11, 2026[A]
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Virgil Bierschwale (R) $9,988 $9,657 $331
Sara Canady (R) $770 $7,061 $0
John Cornyn (R) $11,155,399 $6,816,042 $4,972,818
Wesley Hunt (R) $1,971,633 $4,116,502 $342,307
Gulrez Khan (R) $10,443 $10,964 $0
Ken Paxton (R) $5,857,093 $1,925,816 $3,931,277
Tony Schmoker (R) $2,500 $3,107 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[88]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 John
Cornyn		 Wesley
Hunt		 Ken
Paxton		 Other/Undecided
[c]		 Margin
FiftyPlusOne[89] through February 27, 2026 March 3, 2026 29.5% 21.2% 35.6% 13.7% Paxton +6.1%
270toWin[90] February 25 – March 2, 2026 March 3, 2026 35.2% 17.5% 38.7% 8.6% Paxton +3.5%
RealClearPolitics[91] February 13–27, 2026 March 2, 2026 35.4% 15.8% 39.2% 9.6% Paxton +3.8%
Decision Desk HQ[92] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 35.4% 16.5% 38.9% 9.2% Paxton +3.5%
Race to the WH[93] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 32.9% 17.4% 37.2% 12.5% Paxton +5.7%
Average 33.7% 17.7% 37.9% 10.7% Paxton +4.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn		 Wesley
Hunt		 Ken
Paxton		 Other Undecided
YouGov[94] February 26 – March 2, 2026 1,659 (LV) ± 2.8% 32% 17% 36% 2%[e] 13%
Emerson College[95] February 26–27, 2026 547 (LV) ± 4.1% 36% 17% 40% 8%[f] –
Quantus Insights (R)[96] February 25–26, 2026 939 (LV) ± 3.1% 38% 16% 43% – 3%
Victory Phones (R)[97][B] February 24–25, 2026 600 (LV) – 30% 15% 39% – 16%
Blueprint Polling (D)[98] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 30% 14% 42% 1%[g] 13%
Peak Insights (R)[99][C] February 19–23, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 14% 36% 15%
UT Tyler[100] February 13–22, 2026 – (LV) – 41% 15% 35% – 9%
– (RV) 39% 19% 33% –
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[101] February 2–16, 2026 350 (RV) ± 5.2% 34% 26% 36% 3%[h] –
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[102][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 29% 26% 36% – 9%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[103][D] February 8–11, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 15% 36% – 22%
Peak Insights (R)[99][C] February 3–8, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 29% 25% 31% – 15%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[104][E] February 1–3, 2026 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 18% 34% – 22%
J.L. Partners (R)[105] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 26% 27% – 21%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[106][C] January 29 – February 1, 2026 – (LV) – 31% 24% 29% – 16%
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 31% 17% 38% 2%[i] 12%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.1% 26% 16% 27% 2%[j] 29%
Harper Polling (R)[109][B] January 5–7, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 23% 31% – 20%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[106][C] January 5–11, 2026 – (LV) – 29% 19% 26% – 26%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[110][F] December 14–17, 2025 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 16% 38% – 8%
1892 Polling (R)[106][C] December 4, 2025 – (LV) – 28% 19% 29% – 24%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[111][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 28% 33% – 12%
J.L. Partners[112] December 1–3, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 24% 24% 29% – 23%
co/efficient (R)[113] December 1–3, 2025 1,022 (LV) ± 3.07% 28% 19% 27% – 26%
Public Policy Polling (D)[114][H] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 22% 22% 32% – 24%
Peak Insights (R)[115][C] November 20–25, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 18% 33% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[116][I] November 21–22, 2025 857 (LV) ± 3.3% 25% 26% 36% – 13%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[117][J] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 21% 31% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 27% 26% 34% – 13%
Harper Polling (R)[119][B] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 24% 25% – 25%
Hunt Research (R)[49][120] October 6–10, 2025 1,097 (LV) ± 2.96% 24% 19% 28% – 29%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 31% 24% 34% – 11%
Peak Insights (R)[115][C] October 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 19% 36% – 11%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 33% 22% 34% – 11%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[122][C] September 22–28, 2025 1,142 (LV) – 33% 21% 28% – 18%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 492 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 14% 31% – 26%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[124][K] September 20–22, 2025 760 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 17% 31% – 20%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[125][I] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11%
38% 23% 39% –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 29% 23% 37% – 11%
Texas Southern University[126] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 30% 22% 35% – 13%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 32% 15% 38% 15% –
G1 Research[127] Late June 2025 – – 28% 17% 41% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] June 22–23, 2025 – (V) – 28% 17% 41% – 14%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[128][129][F] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 32% 13% 49% – 7%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 28% 12% 47% – 13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 15% 34% – 24%
Quantus Insights (R)[131][132][L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 16% 46% –
American Opportunity Alliance (R)[133][134] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 14% 43% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 27% 18% 40% – 15%
The Tarrance Group (R)[135][J] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 34% 19% 44% –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 26% 18% 42% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 26% 13% 46% – 15%
Hypothetical polling
John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn		 Wesley
Hunt		 Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[98] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 37% 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[102][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 48% 25%
J.L. Partners (R)[105] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 44% 23%
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 39% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[111][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 50% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[114][H] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 28% 45% 27%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 34% 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[125][I] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 37% 46% 17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 31% 30%
Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton		 Wesley
Hunt		 Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[98] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 53% 29% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[102][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 42% 14%
J.L. Partners (R)[105] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% 22%
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 56% 33% 11%
Harper Polling (R)[109][B] January 5–7, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 33% 23%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[111][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 45% 16%
Harper Polling (R)[119][B] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 34% 28%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 35% 15%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 25% 30%
John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn		 Ronny
Jackson		 Chip
Roy		 Undecided
CWS Research (R)[136][M] October 19–23, 2022 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 14% 18% 33%
John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn		 Someone
Else		 Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[137] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 40% 25%

Results

Unofficial results by county
  Cornyn
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Paxton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results (>98% reporting)
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 907,214 41.9
Republican Ken Paxton 881,121 40.7
Republican Wesley Hunt 292,658 13.5
Republican Sara Canady 26,283 1.2
Republican Anna Bender 24,408 1.1
Republican Gulrez Khan 15,809 0.7
Republican John Adefope 9,252 0.4
Republican Virgil Bierschwale 9,014 0.4
Total votes 2,165,759 100.0

Runoff

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn		 Ken
Paxton		 Other Undecided
March 3, 2026 Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff
Blueprint Polling (D)[98] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 36% 49% – 15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[102][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 50% – 12%
J.L. Partners (R)[105] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% – 19%
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 40% 51% – 9%
Harper Polling (R)[109][B] January 5–7, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 44% – 23%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[111][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[114][H] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 34% 44% – 22%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[117][J] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 46% – 16%
Harper Polling (R)[119][B] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 39% – 25%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 43% 46% – 11%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 43% – 13%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 493 (RV) – 39% 37% – 23%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[124][K] September 20–22, 2025 – (V) ± 3.6% 39% 39% – 22%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] September 14–16, 2025 – (V) – 44% 44% – 12%
Texas Public Opinion Research[139] August 27–29, 2025 320 (RV) – 32% 26% 13%[k] 29%
co/efficient (R)[140] August 25–27, 2025 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 36% 39% – 25%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 41% 48% – 11%
Echelon Insights[141] August 21–24, 2025 515 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 42% – 21%
Emerson College[142] August 11–12, 2025 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 30% 29% 5%[l] 36%
Texas Southern University[126] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 39% 44% – 17%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 42% 45% – 13%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 36% 47% – 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[128][129][F] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 57% – 5%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 33% 49% – 18%
UT Tyler[143] May 28 – June 7, 2025 538 (RV) – 34% 44% – 22%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[144][145][N] June 6–8, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 49% – 18%
UpONE Insights (R)[146][147][O] May 27–28, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 28% 50% – 21%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 34% 43% – 23%
Quantus Insights (R)[131][132][L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 52% – 9%
American Opportunity Alliance (R)[133][134] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 52% – 13%
The Tarrance Group (R)[135][J] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 40% 56% – –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 33% 48% – 19%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 33% 50% – 17%
Internal Republican Party poll[148] Mid–April 2025 605 (V) – 33% 50% – 17%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[118][I] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 35% 52% – 13%
Lake Research Partners (D)/
Slingshot Strategies (D)[149][P]		 March 7–10, 2025 – (RV) – 27% 38% 19%[m] 16%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[150] January 28 – February 2, 2025 – (V) – 28% 53% – 19%
Victory Insights (R)[137] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 42% – 25%
CWS Research (R)[151][M] July 9–10, 2022 1,918 (RV) ± 2.2% 31% 51% – 18%

Results

Republican primary runoff results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent)
Republican Ken Paxton
Total votes 100.0

Democratic primary

Background

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[152][153][154][155]

Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz in 2024, exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitated Jasmine Crockett's entry into the race.[156]

Campaign

Crockett and Talarico participated in a debate on January 24, 2026, hosted by the AFL-CIO in Georgetown. During the debate, both candidates expressed similar policy positions, attacking each other very little. Crockett defended her "firebrand" campaigning style as necessary to meet the political moment, while Talarico expressed a milder approach and emphasized electability against Ken Paxton.[157] Talarico later drew controversy over an allegation from a social media influencer that he had called former rival Colin Allred a "mediocre Black man" compared to Crockett in a private conversation, which he disputed as a mischaracterization of his words. Allred then endorsed Crockett and criticized Talarico.[158] The episode further exposed the racial tension between each candidate's base of support, with Crockett performing best among Black voters, Democrats' strongest voter base, and Talarico performing best among White and Latino voters, demographics which hold far more swing voters.[159]

On February 16, Talarico was scheduled to appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. According to Colbert, however, CBS did not allow him to air the interview nor mention the cancellation on-air based on a recently revised interpretation of the FCC's equal-time rule. Colbert later posted the interview to the show's YouTube page.[160] The interview gained millions of views online, while Talarico fundraised $2.5 million in the aftermath and increased his name recognition as early voting began ahead of the March 3 primary. Analysts largely viewed the campaign as one based on personality and electability rather than ideology.[161]

James Talarico won the Democratic primary with 52.8% of the vote.[162] After a dispute concerning voting hours in Dallas on the night of March 3, Crockett conceded the race on March 4.[163]

Candidates

Nominee

  • James Talarico, state representative from the 50th district (2018–present)[164]

Eliminated in primary

  • Jasmine Crockett, U.S. representative from Texas's 30th congressional district (2023–present)[165] (endorsed Talarico)[166]
  • Ahmad R. Hassan, real estate broker, attorney and perennial candidate[29][30]

Withdrawn

  • Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 (running for U.S. House, endorsed Crockett)[167][158]
  • Emily Morgul, administrative assistant[168][29]
  • Michael Swanson, waiter[168][29]
  • Terry Virts, retired United States Air Force pilot and NASA astronaut (running for U.S. House)[169]
  • Paula Williams, realtor[170][29]

Declined

  • Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present) (running for re-election)[171]
  • Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[172]
  • Clay Jenkins, Dallas County judge[n] (2011–present)[173]
  • Marc Veasey, U.S. representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present)[174] (endorsed Allred)[175]

Endorsements

Jasmine Crockett
Executive branch officials
  • Kamala Harris, former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)[176] (later endorsed Talarico)[166]
U.S. senators
  • Angela Alsobrooks, Maryland (2025–present)[177]
U.S. representatives
  • Colin Allred, former TX-32 (2019–2025), 2024 senate nominee, and former candidate for this seat[158]
  • Ro Khanna, CA-17 (2017–present)[178]
  • Adelita Grijalva, AZ-7 (2025–present)[179]
  • Christian Menefee, TX-18, (2026–present)[179]
  • LaMonica McIver, NJ-10 (2024–present)[180]
  • Ayanna Pressley, MA-7 (2019–present)[178]
  • Bonnie Watson Coleman, NJ-12 (2015–present)[180]
State legislators
  • Rodney Ellis, former state senator from the 13th district (1990–2017)[181]
  • Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, state representative from the 120th district (2017–present) (previously endorsed Allred)[181]
  • Christian Manuel, state representative from the 22nd district (2023–present) (previously endorsed Talarico)[181]
Local officials
  • Ras Baraka, mayor of Newark (2014–present)[180]
Individuals
  • Cardi B, rapper[182]
  • Kelly Rowland, singer-songwriter[182]
  • Method Man, rapper[183]
  • Kerry Washington, actress[182]
Labor unions
  • Service Employees International Union Texas[184]
Organizations
Newspapers
  • San Antonio Express-News[189]
James Talarico
U.S. senators
  • Martin Heinrich, New Mexico (2013–present)[185]
U.S. representatives
  • Julie Johnson, TX-32 (2025–present)[190]
State officials
  • Rebecca Bell-Metereau, Texas State Board of Education member (2021–present)[190]
  • Staci Childs, Texas State Board of Education member (2023–present)[191]
  • Tiffany Clark, Texas State Board of Education member (2025–present)[190]
  • Gustavo Reveles, Texas State Board of Education member (2025–present)[190]
State legislators
  • Sarah Eckhardt, state senator from the 14th district (2021–present)[190]
  • Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present)[190]
  • 28 state representatives[o]
  • Christian Manuel, state representative from the 22nd district (2023–present)[191] (switched endorsement to Crockett)[181]
Individuals
  • Olivia Julianna, political activist[192]
  • Bobby Pulido, Tejano musician and Democratic candidate for TX-15 in 2026[193]
Labor unions
  • Southern Regional Council of Carpenters[194]
Organizations
  • Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus[52]
  • State Tejano Democrats[195]
  • Progressive Change Campaign Committee[196]
  • Texas A&M College Democrats[197]
  • University of Texas at Austin College Democrats[197]
  • College Democrats of America[198]
  • High School Democrats of America[199]
Newspapers
  • Austin American-Statesman[200]
  • Dallas Morning News[201]
  • Fort Worth Star-Telegram[202]
  • Houston Chronicle[203]
  • The Austin Chronicle[204]
Colin Allred (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
  • Ron Kirk, former trade representative (2009–2013)[205]
U.S. representatives
  • Lizzie Fletcher, TX-07 (2019–present)[206]
  • Sanford Bishop, GA-02 (1993–present)[175]
  • Yvette Clarke, NY-09 (2007–present)[175]
  • Steven Horsford, NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)[175]
  • Gregory Meeks, NY-05 (1998–present)[175]
  • Joe Neguse, CO-02 (2019–present)[175]
  • Lauren Underwood, IL-14 (2019–present)[175]
  • Marc Veasey, TX-33 (2013–present)[175]
State legislators
  • Alma Allen, state representative from the 131st district (2005–present)[207]
  • Rhetta Bowers, state representative from the 113th district (2019–present)[191]
  • Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, state representative from the 120th district (2017–present)[207] (switched endorsement to Crockett after Allred withdrew)[181]
  • Toni Rose, state representative from the 110th district (2023–present)[207]
  • Venton Jones, state representative from the 100th district (2023–present)[207]
Declined to endorse
U.S. representatives
  • Beto O'Rourke, former TX-16 (2013–2019) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[208]
Labor unions

Debates

2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Crockett Hassan Talarico
1[209] January 24, 2026 Texas AFL-CIO Daniel Marin
Gromer Jeffers		 KXAN-TV P N P

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 11, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jasmine Crockett (D) $8,577,757 $5,092,872 $3,484,885
James Talarico (D) $20,694,809 $15,906,718 $4,788,090
Source: Federal Election Commission[88]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Jasmine
Crockett		 James
Talarico		 Other/Undecided
[p]		 Margin
FiftyPlusOne[210] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 45.7% 46.2% 8.1% Talarico +0.5%
270toWin[90] February 9 – March 1, 2026 March 2, 2026 47.6% 47.6% 4.8% Tied
Race to the WH[93] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 44.4% 49.1% 6.5% Talarico +4.7%
VoteHub[211] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 45.5% 45.9% 8.6% Talarico +0.4%
Decision Desk HQ[212] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 45.6% 48.5% 8.6% Talarico +2.9%
Average 45.76% 47.46% 7.4% Talarico +1.14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Colin
Allred		 Jasmine
Crockett		 James
Talarico		 Other Undecided
YouGov[94] February 26 – March 2, 2026 2,408 (LV) ± 2.7% – 40% 53% 0%[q] 7%
Emerson College[95] February 26–27, 2026 850 (LV) ± 3.3% – 47% 52% 1%[r] –
Public Policy Polling (D)[213][Q] February 25, 2026 599 (LV) ± 4.0% – 42% 48% 0%[s] 10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[98] February 23–24, 2026 472 (LV) ± 4.5% – 40% 52% 2%[t] 6%
UT Tyler[100] February 13–22, 2026 488 (LV) – – 55% 37% 4%[u] 4%
548 (RV) – 56% 34% 7%[v] 3%
February 16, 2026 Talarico is interviewed by Stephen Colbert
University of Texas/
Texas Politics Project[101]		 February 2–16, 2026 369 (RV) ± 5.1% – 56% 44% –
Impact Research (D)[214][R] February 10–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 43% 47% 10%
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% – 47% 39% 2%[w] 12%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[215][P] January 14–21, 2026 1,290 (LV) ± 3.7% – 38% 37% 4%[x] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[216][S] January 6–15, 2026 1,005 (LV) ± 3.2% – 46% 33% – 21%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 413 (LV) ± 4.8% – 38% 47% <1%[y] 15%
Texas Southern University[217] December 9–11, 2025 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% – 51% 43% – 6%
December 8, 2025 Allred withdraws from the race
Impact Research (D)[214][R] December 3–4, 2025 – (LV) – – 52% 35% 13%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% – 52% 34% – 14%
46% – 42% – 8%
Impact Research (D)[218][R] October 23–29, 2025 836 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% – 48% – 9%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 42% – 30% 4%[z] 24%
Public Policy Polling (D)[219] September 3–4, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% – 32% – 27%
Emerson College[142] August 11–12, 2025 370 (RV) ± 5.1% 58% – – 8%[aa] 34%
Texas Southern University[126] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% – 43% – 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Colin
Allred		 James
Talarico		 Joaquin
Castro		 Jasmine
Crockett		 Beto
O'Rourke		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% 13% 25% – 31% 25% – 6%
34% – – 57% – – 9%
38% – – – 55% – 7%
– – – 51% 41% – 8%
39% – – 54% – 7%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 25% – 13% 29% 31% 2%[ab] –
Texas Public Opinion Research[139] August 27–29, 2025 270 (RV) – 13% 7% 4% 26% 27% 5%[ac] 18%
Texas Southern University[126] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 38% – – – 58% – 4%
52% – – 41% – – 7%
NRSC (R)[220] July 4–7, 2025 566 (LV) ± 3.0% 20% – 13% 35% 13% – 18%

Results

Unofficial results by county
  Talarico
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Crockett
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Hassan
  •   80–90%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
  •   50%
Democratic primary results (98% reporting)
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic James Talarico 1,212,516 52.4
Democratic Jasmine Crockett 1,068,348 46.2
Democratic Ahmad Hassan 31,010 1.3
Total votes 2,311,874 100.0

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Ted Brown (Libertarian), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024[221]
  • Joshua Cain (Independent)[221][222]
  • Ronald Evans (Independent)[222]
  • Camencia Ford (Independent), businesswoman[221][222]
  • Jade Simmons (Independent), motivational speaker[221][222]
  • Robert Smith (Green), assistant professor[223]
  • Hans Truelson (Independent)[221][222]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[224] Likely R January 12, 2026
The Cook Political Report[225] Likely R October 14, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[226] Likely R January 29, 2026
Race To The WH[227][228] Tilt R February 26, 2026

Post-primary endorsements

James Talarico (D)
Executive branch officials
  • Kamala Harris, former vice president of the United States (2021–2025) (previously endorsed Crockett)[166]
U.S. senators
  • Chris Coons, Delaware (2010–present)[229]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, New York (2009–present)[229]
  • Adam Schiff, California (2024–present)[229]
  • Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader (2017–2021, 2025–present) from New York (1999–present)[229]
U.S. representatives
  • Jasmine Crockett, TX-30 (2023–present) and former candidate for this seat[163]
Newspapers and media

Polling

John Cornyn vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 James
Talarico (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 44% 43% 5%[ad] 8%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[231] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% – 14%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 45% – 7%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 35% 7%[ae] 17%

Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton (R)		 James
Talarico (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 44% 3%[af] 7%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% – 9%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[231] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 44% – 12%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% – 5%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 8%[ag] 17%
Hypothetical polling

John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Jasmine
Crockett (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 5%[ad] 7%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% – 9%
Change Research (D)[232] November 21–26, 2025 1,189 (V) ± 3.1% 49% 41% – 10%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 44% – 6%

Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton (R)		 Jasmine
Crockett (D)		 Other Undecided
Hart Research (D)[233][T] February 6–12, 2026 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% – 6%
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 4%[ah] 8%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% – 9%
Change Research (D)[232] November 21–26, 2025 1,189 (V) ± 3.1% 50% 42% – 8%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 47% – 2%

John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Colin
Allred (D)		 Other Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[231] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% – 13%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 46% – 6%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 37% 7%[ae] 13%
Emerson College[142] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 38% – 17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 44% – 8%

Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton (R)		 Colin
Allred (D)		 Other Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[231] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% – 12%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 47% – 5%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 41% 8%[ag] 13%
GBAO (D)[234][U] August 13–18, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% – 4%
49% 50%[ai] – –
Emerson College[142] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% – 13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% – 6%
Brad Parscale (R)[148] Mid–April 2025 >1,000 (LV) – 37% 52% – 11%

Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Wesley
Hunt (R)		 Colin
Allred (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 45% – 5%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 6%[aj] 19%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Wesley
Hunt (R)		 Jasmine
Crockett (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 43% 3%[af] 8%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% – 9%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 45% – 5%

Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Wesley
Hunt (R)		 James
Talarico (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[107] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 42% 3%[af] 9%
Emerson College[108] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 44% – 6%
UT Tyler[123] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 37% 6%[aj] 21%

John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% 5%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 43% 8%

Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% 5%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 45% 6%

Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Wesley
Hunt (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[121]		 September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 47% 4%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 43% 8%

John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Joaquin
Castro (D)		 Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 41% 11%

Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton (R)		 Joaquin
Castro (D)		 Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% 9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Wesley
Hunt (R)		 Joaquin
Castro (D)		 Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[130] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 10%

John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R)[144][145][N] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 35% 23%

Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Ken
Paxton (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R)[144][145][N] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 42% 19%

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other Undecided
Texas Public Opinion Research[139] August 27–29, 2025 843 (RV) ± 4.6% 48% 43% 9%[ak] –

Results

2026 United States Senate election in Texas
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican TBD
Democratic James Talarico
Libertarian TBD
Independent Joshua Cain N/A
Independent Carmencia Ford N/A
Independent Jed Simmons N/A
Independent Hans Trulsson N/A
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^
    • Giovanni Capriglione, state representative from the 98th district (2013–present)[51]
    • Drew Darby, state representative from the 72nd district (2007–present)[52]
    • Charlie Geren, state representative from the 99th district (2001–present)[51]
    • Carl Tepper, state representative from the 84th district (2023–present)[52]
    • Terry Wilson, state representative from the 20th district (2017–present)[37]
  2. ^
    • Rodney Anderson, former state representative from the 105th district (2015–2019) and 106th district (2011–2013)[51]
    • Myra Crownover, former state representative from the 64th district (2000–2017)[37]
    • John Cyrier, former state representative from the 17th district (2015–2023)[37]
    • Larry Gonzales, former state representative from the 52nd district (2011–2018)[37]
    • Brooks Landgraf, former state representative from the 81st district (2015–present)[38]
    • Dee Margo, former state representative from the 78th district (2011–2013) and mayor of El Paso (2017–2021)[53]
    • Four Price, former state representative from the 87th district (2011–2025)[52]
    • John Raney, former state representative from the 14th district (2011–2025)[37]
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ "Someone else" and "I [did/will] not vote in this primary" with 1%; John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, and Sara Canady with 0%
  6. ^ Anna Bender with 3%; Sara Canady and Gulrez Khan 2%; John Adefope with 1%; Virgil Bierschwale with 0%
  7. ^ "Do not remember" with 1%; John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, Gulrez Khan, and "Did not vote in this race" with 0%
  8. ^ Bierschwale with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ Sara Canady with 1%; "4 others" with <1%
  10. ^ John Adefope with 1%; Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, and Gulrez Khan with a combined 1%
  11. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  13. ^ Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
  14. ^ County executive
  15. ^
    • Diego Bernal, state representative from the 123rd district (2015–present)[190]
    • John Bryant, state representative from the 114th district (2023–present)[190]
    • John Bucy III, state representative from the 136th district (2019–present)[190]
    • Elizabeth Campos, state representative from the 119th district (2021–present)[190]
    • Terry Canales, state representative from the 40th district (2013–present)[191]
    • Sheryl Cole, state representative from the 46th district (2019–present)[191]
    • Philip Cortez, state representative from the 117th district (2017–present)[190]
    • Aicha Davis, state representative from the 109th district (2025–present)[190]
    • Lulu Flores, state representative from the 51st district (2023–present)[190]
    • Erin Gamez, state representative from the 38th district (2022–present)[190]
    • Josey Garcia, state representative from the 124th district (2023–present)[190]
    • Linda Garcia, state representative from the 107th district (2025–present)[190]
    • Cassandra Hernandez, state representative from the 115th district (2025–present)[190]
    • Donna Howard, state representative from the 48th district (2006–present)[190]
    • Ann Johnson, state representative from the 134th district (2021–present)[190]
    • Mando Martinez, state representative from the 39th district (2005–present)[190]
    • Terry Meza, state representative from the 105th district (2019–present)[190]
    • Christina Morales, state representative from the 145th district (2019–present)[190]
    • Eddie Morales, state representative from the 74th district (2021–present)[190]
    • Penny Morales Shaw, state representative from the 148th district (2021–present)[190]
    • Ray Lopez, state representative from the 125th district (2019–present)[190]
    • Claudia Ordaz, state representative from the 79th district (2023–present)[190]
    • Mary Ann Perez, state representative from the 144th district (2017–present)[190]
    • Vincent Perez, state representative from the 77th district (2025–present)[190]
    • Ramon Romero Jr., state representative from the 90th district (2015–present)[190]
    • Lauren Ashley Simmons, state representative from the 146th district (2025–present)[191]
    • Armando Walle, state representative from the 140th district (2009–present)[190]
    • Erin Zwiener, state representative from the 45th district (2019–present)[190]
  16. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  17. ^ Hassan, "I [did/will] not vote in this primary", and "Someone else" with 0%
  18. ^ Hassan with 1%
  19. ^ Hassan with 0%
  20. ^ "Did not vote in this race" and "Do not remember" with 1%; Hassan with 0%
  21. ^ Hassan with 4%
  22. ^ Hassan with 7%
  23. ^ Hassan with 2%
  24. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 4%
  25. ^ Hassan at <1%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  27. ^ Morgul with 4%; Swanson with 3%; Virts with 1%
  28. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  29. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 5%
  30. ^ a b Ted Brown (L) with 5%
  31. ^ a b "Someone else" with 7%
  32. ^ a b c Ted Brown (L) with 3%
  33. ^ a b "Someone else" with 8%
  34. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  35. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  36. ^ a b "Someone else" with 6%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 9%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Some candidates may have not published fundraising totals as of the filing deadline
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by Hunt's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, which supports Cornyn
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Paxton's campaign
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Lone Star PAC, which supports Paxton
  6. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
  7. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Standing For Texas, who support Hunt[138]
  8. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group
  10. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by One Nation, which supports Cornyn
  12. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
  13. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
  15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports Talarico
  17. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaign
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by Crockett's campaign
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by Forward Texas super PAC, which supports Crockett
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign

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