2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
Part of the 2026 Iran war
Satellite image of the Strait
Date 28 February 2026 (2026-02-28) – present
Location Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman
Cause 2026 Iran war
Participants Iran, United States, Israel, shipping companies
Outcome Global surge of the price of oil and gas
Casualties
1 tug sunk
at least 11 merchant ships damaged, of which 6 abandoned[1]
10 seafarers killed or missing
1 port worker killed and 2 wounded in Bahrain

The Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for global energy trade, has experienced ongoing geopolitical and economic disruption since 28 February 2026, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, which included the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases, Israeli territory, and other Gulf states, while its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait, leading to an effective halt in shipping traffic.

As of 12 March 2026, Iran has made 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships. The warnings and subsequent attacks on vessels caused a sharp decline in maritime transit, with tanker traffic dropping first by approximately 70% and over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risks.[2][3] Soon afterwards traffic dropped to about zero. This disruption affected about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), prompting major shipping firms to suspend operations in the area.[4][5] Oil and gas prices surged amid fears of prolonged supply shortages; Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years, rising up to US$126 per barrel at its peak.[3][6][7][8] The closure of the strait has been described as the largest disruption to the energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis[9] and the largest in the history of the global oil market.[10]

Background

Diagram showing 2024 daily average of LNG transported through the strait[11][citation needed]

The strait is 21 miles wide (34 km) at its narrowest point, forming a seaway passage between Iran and Oman. Its two unidirectional sea lanes facilitate the transit of around 20 million barrels of oil per day, representing roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade, primarily from producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Qatar.[12][2] In 2024, an estimated 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments through the strait were destined for Asian markets,[4] with China receiving a third of its oil via the strait, and had about a billion barrels in oil reserve (a few months of supply).[13] Europe gets 12% to 14% of its LNG from Qatar, through the strait.[14]

Tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel escalated in the lead-up to 2026, stemming from failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva and a prior 12-day air conflict in 2025.[15] Iran had signaled potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz in response to threats, including a temporary partial closure earlier in the month as a warning.[15]

During 15 to 20 February, Iran increased its oil export to three times its normal rate and reduced oil storage to reduce risk of disruptions. Saudi Arabia also attempted similar moves.[16]

In the days before the strikes, war-risk ship insurance premiums for the strait increased from 0.125% to between 0.2% and 0.4% of the ship insurance value per transit. For very large oil tankers, this is an increase of a quarter of a million dollars.[17][18]

Escalation

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[7][18] Iran responded with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases in the Gulf, including in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, causing casualties and infrastructure damage.[19][20] The conflict expanded to Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, prompting Israeli counterstrikes.[21] Iran on March 9 declared that they will bring more security passage to the countries that expels US and Israel ambassadors.[22]

By 9 March, shipping insurance rates for the Strait were reported to have increased by four to six times over the previous week, and the U.S. government began to offer help to insurers under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act,[23] while continuing to warn commercial shipping against the area.[24]

Closure of the strait

List of ships attacked by Iran

List of ships attacked by Iran
# Date Name Flag Type Result Sources
1 1 March 2026 MT Skylight Palau Oil tanker Abandoned; 2 crew killed, including captain [25][26][27]
2 1 March 2026 MKD VYOM Marshall Islands Oil tanker Abandoned; 1 crew killed [28][29]
– 1 March 2026 Sea La Donna[A] Liberia Oil/chemical tanker Unknown [30]
3 1 March 2026 MT Hercules Star Gibraltar Oil tanker Minor damage [31]
4 1 March 2026 Ocean Electra Liberia Tanker Minor damage [32]
5 1 March 2026 – 2 March 2026 LCT Ayeh United Arab Emirates Oil tanker Damaged [33][34]
6 2 March 2026 Stena Imperative United States Products tanker Damaged [35]
7 2 March 2026 Athe Nova Honduras Bitumen tanker Damaged [36]
8 2 March 2026 Gold Oak Panama Bulk carrier Minor damage [37][38]
9 3 March 2026 Pelagia Malta Bulk carrier Unharmed [39]
10 3 March 2026 Libra Trader Marshall Islands Crude oil tanker Minor damage [37][38]
11 4 March 2026 MSC Grace Liberia Container ship Unharmed [37]
12 4 March 2026 Safeen Prestige Malta Container ship Abandoned [40]
13 4 March 2026 Sonangol Namibe Bahamas Oil tanker Damaged [41]
14 6 March 2026 Mussafah 2 United Arab Emirates Tugboat Sank; 3 crew missing [42][43][44]
– 7 March 2026 Prima[B] Malta Oil/chemical tanker Unknown [45]
– 7 March 2026 Louis P[B] Marshall Islands Oil tanker Unknown [46]
15 10 March 2026 Unknown N/A Bulk carrier Unharmed [47]
16 11 March 2026 MV Mayuree Naree Thailand Bulk carrier Abandoned; 3 crew missing [48][49]
17 11 March 2026 One Majesty Japan Container ship Minor damage [48]
18 11 March 2026 Star Gwyneth Marshall Islands Bulk carrier Damaged [50]
– 11 March 2026 Express Rome[B] Liberia Container ship Unknown [51]
19 11 March 2026 Safesea Vishnu Marshall Islands Oil tanker Set ablaze; abandoned; 1 crew killed [52][53]
20 11 March 2026 Zefyros Malta Oil tanker Set ablaze; abandoned [52]
21 12 March 2026 Source Blessing Liberia Container ship Minor damage [54]

Footnotes:

  1. ^ Attack unverified
  2. ^ a b c Claimed by Iran/IRGC

Timeline

Within hours of the strikes, the IRGC transmitted warnings via VHF radio to vessels in the strait, stating that no ships would be permitted to pass.[4][3][55] Although the closure is not legally binding as Iran did not formally declare a blockade, military and industry sources say that safety cannot be guaranteed, and several ships stayed in port or turned back.[56] The threats led to a partial closure, with ship-tracking data first showing a 70% reduction in traffic.[2]

On 1 March, the oil tanker Skylight was struck by a projectile north of Khasab, Oman, killing two Indian crew members and injuring three others. The rest of its 20 crew evacuated. It was sanctioned by the US Department of Treasury for links to the Iranian shadow fleet. The MKD VYOM was struck by a drone boat, sparking a fire and an explosion in its engine room. An Indian sailor was killed, and its 21 crew evacuated on the Panama-flagged MV SAND.[28] Another Indian was critically wounded on the LCT Ayeh.[25][26]

On 2 March 2026, a senior official in the IRGC officially confirmed that the strait was closed, subsequently threatening any ship that passed through it.[57] The US-flagged Stena Imperative was struck twice at the port of Bahrain, causing a fire.[35] A port worker was killed and two others were hurt in the attack, although the ship's crew were unharmed.[58] The Athe Nova, which has links to Iran, was struck by two drones after attempting to illegally cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency.[36]

Just after midnight on 2 March, no tankers in the strait broadcast automatic identification system signals, indicating low or no traffic,[59] however with unreliable data and satellite navigation device basis.[17][60] Protection and indemnity insurance is critical for shipping. Its war risk was removed for 5 March, making the economic risk too high for ship owners to use the strait. The strait was declared a high risk zone, yielding extra pay and right of refusal for crew. The strait remained technically open, but effectively closed.[59]

On 4 March, the IRGC claimed that they had achieved complete control of the strait.[61] By then, at least eight vessels had been damaged. A Malta-flagged ship, Safeen Prestige, was struck, forcing its crew to evacuate. Meanwhile, the Pola, which had earlier turned its AIS transponder off, managed to pass through the strait and deliver its cargo to the UAE, despite the blockade.[38] In the late night, a large explosion caused by a sea drone[62] struck the oil tanker Sonangol Namibe, which was anchored near Mubarak Al Kabeer Port in Kuwait more than 800 kilometres (500 mi) from the Strait, representing a significant expansion of the conflict. The attack caused an oil spill that posed an environmental risk. A small vessel was observed leaving the scene following the attack.[41][63] The IRGC said that it hit a US oil tanker.[64] On 6 March, a tugboat dispatched to assist the Safeen Prestige was struck by two missiles and later sank, leaving at least three crew members missing.[42][43] On 7 March, the IRGC claimed that it hit the oil tanker Prima with a drone in the Persian Gulf,[45] and a US oil tanker, the Louis P, with a drone in the Strait of Hormuz.[46]

On 10 March, a bulk carrier reported a nearby splash followed by an explosion 36 nautical miles (67 km; 41 mi) off Abu Dhabi, in the first reported maritime incident in days.[65] Also that day, US military intelligence sources reported that Iran had begun planting naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the reports, US president Donald Trump demanded that Iran should immediately remove any mines it had planted, and the US military said it destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers.[66][67] A large wave of attacks on ships was carried out on 11 March, with at least three vessels sustaining damage.[48] Twenty crew members of the Thailand-flagged Mayuree Naree were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman after the vessel caught fire, while three others were missing.[68] An unverified attack was also claimed by the IRGC on the Express Rome.[51] Later that day, two oil tankers were attacked by an Iranian drone boat off the Port of Basra, Iraq, setting them on fire and killing at least one crew member. The State Company for Iraqi Ports rescued 38 crew members aboard both vessels.[69]

By 12 March, the UKMTO had received reports of 16 attacks on shipping and four 'suspicious incidents' in the Persian Gulf since the start of hostilities.[70]

Exceptions to the blockade

On 4 March, reports emerged that Iran would allow only Chinese vessels to pass through the strait, citing China's supportive stance towards Iran since the conflict intensified. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and had stressed the importance of protecting global shipping routes.[71][72] Subsequently, on 5 March, the bulk carrier Iron Maiden, operated by Cetus Maritime Shanghai Ltd., transited the strait while signalling "CHINA OWNER". Earlier, the LPG tanker Bogazici had broadcast that it was a Muslim-owned and Turkish-operated vessel, and successfully passed through.[73] On 7 March, another bulk carrier, the Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean, broadcast its Chinese-owned-and-operated status to transit the strait after picking up its cargo from the UAE's Mina Saqr port.[74]

On 5 March, the IRGC announced that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed only to ships from the US, Israel and their Western allies. This was confirmed again on 8 March.[75][76] On 13 March, Turkish transport minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said that Iran approved the passage of a Turkish ship through the strait.[77] It was also reported that two Indian-flagged gas carriers and a Saudi oil tanker with 1 million barrels for India[78] were allowed to pass.[79]

Bypassing and escorting

The Iranian area of the strait is theoretically avoidable through the territorial waters of Oman and the UAE on the south. Particularly, Oman's deep-water ports of Duqm, Salalah and Sohar in the Arabian Sea outside the strait allow tankers to bypass the choke point.[80] However, in March 2026 several drones struck Duqm and Salalah, with at least one fuel storage tank in Duqm damaged.[80] Sohar, in turn, fell within an insurer's war risk area, potentially increasing charter and insurance costs for ships.[80] The Joint War Committee of the London insurance market included waters around Oman into its list of high-risk maritime areas.[80] Most shipping companies decided to use a longer bypassing through the southern tip of Africa.[81] Maersk announced its usage of the Suez Canal from January 2026.[81]

In the short term it is possible to escort 3–4 commercial ships a day with 7–8 destroyers providing air cover, depending on the risk from Iranian midget submarines.[81] However, doing so sustainably for ​months requires more resources.

As of 10 March, Saudi Arabia increasingly diverted oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline, which runs from the eastern oil fields, while the UAE diverted oil via the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the port of Fujairah on the Arabian Sea.[82][83] However, the capacity of these pipelines is unable to match the amount of oil shipped through the strait, an estimated 3.5–5.5 million barrels per day compared to 20 million;[84] and the Red Sea route is vulnerable to potential attacks by the Houthis.[82]

Impacts

Passage through the Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz Transits[85]

Late on 28 February, outgoing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was heavy, while incoming traffic was light.[86] At least three tankers were struck near the strait, including one off Oman that was set ablaze.[87][6] At least 17 oil tankers continued travelling through the strait.[88] On 1 and 2 March, no ships appeared in the strait.[59]

Major container shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, suspended transits through the strait and related routes such as the Red Sea.[89][90] Houthi-controlled Yemen announced on 28 February that it would resume attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea,[91] forcing Suez Canal traffic to be rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This added weeks to transit times and increased shipping costs. The crisis disrupted global energy supplies and stranded tankers in the Persian Gulf.[92]

Cruise ships reduced activity in the Persian Gulf and stopped using the strait,[93] stranding 15,000 passengers on at least six major cruise ships: Saudi-based cruise line Aroya Cruises' eponymous Aroya; two ships owned by Celestyal Cruises, Celestyal Discovery and Celestyal Journey; MSC Euribia of MSC Cruises; and two TUI Cruises ships, Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5.[94]

On 15 March, an Iranian commander said that Iran would continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point.[95]

On 16 March, a Pakistani oil tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz.[96]

Global economy

The crisis sent shockwaves through global energy markets and raised security concerns. Roughly 20% of the world's oil and natural gas normally passes through the strait, and the disruptions caused Brent crude prices to jump 10–13% in early trading, with analysts warning they could reach $100 per barrel or higher if disruptions persist.[97][6][98] The spike in prices is especially problematic in Asia, where major importers like China and India could face supply shortages and price volatility.[99] Natural gas prices in Europe also surged, rising from €30/MWh the past week, to €46/MWh on Monday, 2 March,[14] peaking above €60/MWh on Tuesday, 3 March (nearly double from previous week),[100] before decreasing again to €48/MWh on Wednesday, 4 March.[101] The shipping disruption contributed to volatility in United Kingdom energy markets, with analysts warning that wholesale gas price increases could raise household energy bills and expose the country's reliance on global fuel markets.[102]

The crisis has been described as the largest disruption to the energy supply since the 1970s oil crises[9] and the largest in the history of the global oil market.[10] Analysts from institutions like Barclays and Goldman Sachs highlighted risks of sustained high oil prices if the strait is restricted over a longer period.[18][7] The disruptions also raised concerns over inflation and potential economic downturns in oil-importing nations.[103]

OPEC+ pledged to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day to mitigate shortages.[6] Due to rising tensions in the Middle East, Japanese refiners have asked the government to release some of their stockpiled oil. The refiners obtain about 95% of their crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. About 70% of this Middle Eastern oil is delivered to Japan by ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.[104] On 4 March, Pakistan, a country reliant on imported oil that was looking for alternative shipment routes due to the closure, officially requested that Saudi Arabia reroute oil supplies through port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, with Saudi Arabia providing assurances and arranging at least one crude shipment to bypass the closed strait. Saudi authorities also diverted some of their own crude exports via Yanbu to reduce the impact.[105]

On 3 March, Iraq started shutting down operations at the Rumaila oil field due to a lack of storage space, as tankers were unable to leave the strait.[106] On 6 March, Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi warned that if the war continues, other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure, and that "this will bring down economies of the world". QatarEnergy had already stopped gas production on 2 March and declared force majeure on gas contracts on 4 March.[107][108] On 7 March, the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation declared force majeure and announced that it would be cutting its oil production.[109][84] Bahrain's Bapco Energies declared force majeure[84] and the United Arab Emirates lowered its oil production.[8] As of 8 March, production at the three main oil fields in southern Iraq had dropped by 70% since the start of the war, from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million.[8] As of 12 March the Gulf Arab states cut their production by at least 10 million barrels per day. On 13 March, Saudi Arabia reduced its oil production by 20%, from 10 million barrels per day to 8 million, after the shutdown of two of Saudi Aramco's offshore fields, including Safaniya.[110]

On 8 March, crude oil prices surpassed US$100 per barrel for the first time in four years, since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[8] On 11 March, the 32 International Energy Agency member states unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil, representing about four days worth of global consumption, from their emergency reserves.[111] The U.S. enacted a suspension of the embargo of Russian oil during the Russo-Ukrainian war until 11 April for 30 Russia-connected petroleum tankers in Asia, carrying 19 million barrels of oil.[112]

In the second week of March 2026, California's gasoline prices exceeded $5 per gallon due to the United States' conflict with Iran.[113] The crisis has also led to a slight increase in the number of ships traversing the Panama Canal.[114]

International responses

On 3 March, U.S. president Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy would begin to escort tankers through the strait "as soon as possible".[115] The Indian Government also proposed to deploy the Indian Navy to safeguard the oil supplies it receives.[116] On 9 March, French president Emmanuel Macron announced that France and several other states are setting up a "purely defensive, purely support" escort mission for merchant ships transiting the strait, in the framework of Operation Aspides, and that France is sending a dozen ships to the wider Middle East. The French Navy vowed to send two frigates to escort vessels through the strait.[117][118] As of 10 March, Britain, along with Germany and Italy, are working to support commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.[119] Also on that day, U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said that the U.S. military was looking at a "range of options" for restoring tanker traffic.[120]

On 11 March, the G7 nations agreed to look into the possibility of escorting ships through the strait.[121] U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on 12 March said that the U.S. Navy may be able to start escorting ships through the straight by the end of March, with the military still focused on "destroying Iran's offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities."[115]

On 15 March, British energy secretary Ed Miliband said that the UK was considering "any options" to secure the Strait of Hormuz.[122] Later that day, British prime minister Keir Starmer held phone conversations with US president Donald Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney to discuss the possibility of opening the Strait of Hormuz.[123]

On 16 March, an Australian government minister stated that Australia will not send ships to the Strait.[124] On the same day, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also ruled out any current plans to send Japanese navy ships to help escort oil tankers through the strait.[124][125] European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that the EU was exploring the possibility of expanding the scope of its existing naval missions, Aspides and Atalanta, or establishing a framework for the strait similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.[126] Several EU members ruled out military involvement in the crisis: Germany,[127] Italy,[126] Luxembourg,[126] Romania,[126] Spain,[128] and the United Kingdom.[126] France emphasized that a naval escort mission would only take place when the war is over, with French officials saying that Greece, Italy and the Netherlands have shown interest in such a mission.[127] Also on 16 March, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that for now the United States is happy with the increasing number of ships crossing the Strait.[129]

See also

  • Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war
  • Elphinstone Inlets
  • Tanker war
  • Red Sea crisis

Further reading

References

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