2026 Senedd election
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7 May 2026
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All 96 seats to the Senedd
49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 2,433,921
Turnout 51.6% (Increase 5.0 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Dan Thomas Eluned Morgan
Party Plaid Cymru Reform Labour
Leader since 16 June 2023 5 February 2026 24 July 2024
Leader's seat Bangor Conwy Môn Casnewydd Islwyn Ceredigion Penfro (defeated)
Last election 13 seats, 20.7% 0 seats, 1.1% 30 seats, 36.2%
Seats before 13[a] 2 29
Seats won 43 34 9
Seat change Increase 30 Increase 34 Decrease 21
Popular vote 444,665 367,985 139,203
Percentage 35.4% 29.3% 11.1%
Swing Increase14.7pp Increase28.2pp Decrease25.1pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Darren Millar Anthony Slaughter Jane Dodds
Party Conservative Green Liberal Democrats
Leader since 5 December 2024 December 2018 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Clwyd Caerdydd Penarth Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
Last election 16 seats, 25.1% 0 seats, 4.4% 1 seat, 4.3%
Seats before 13 0 1
Seats won 7 2 1
Seat change Decrease 9 Increase 2 Steady
Popular vote 134,926 84,608 56,012
Percentage 10.7% 6.7% 4.5%
Swing Decrease14.4pp Increase2.3pp Increase0.2pp
Results election map
First Minister before election

Eluned Morgan
Labour

 First Minister after election

TBD

An election for the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru) was held on 7 May 2026,[1][2] to elect all 96 members to the Senedd. It was the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It was the first election following numerous reforms: an increase in the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, the adoption of party-list proportional representation, the reduction of the number of constituencies to sixteen, and the shortening of its term from five years to four.[3][4] The election was held on the same day as local elections in England and elections to the Scottish Parliament.

Welsh Labour lost government and its status as the largest party for the first time since devolution began in 1999, ending a winning streak that had lasted since the 1922 United Kingdom general election and resulting in a historic realignment of Welsh politics. Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party for the first time with 43 seats, while Reform UK secured second place with 34 seats. Labour was reduced to third place with a historic low of 9 seats. The Welsh Conservatives and the Wales Green Party won 7 and 2 seats respectively, with the Greens entering the Senedd for the first time. With her failure to secure a seat in the constituency of Ceredigion Penfro, First Minister Eluned Morgan became the first leader of a government in the UK to lose their seat while in office.[5]

Turnout was 51.72%, the highest ever for a Welsh devolved election.[6]

Background

In the 2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour won another government with one seat short of a majority.[7] Shortly after, they entered a co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru, which fell short of a typical coalition or confidence and supply agreement but represented some degree of policy collaboration.[8][9] At the 2022 Welsh local elections, the Welsh Conservatives suffered losses to Plaid Cymru and Labour.[10]

In December 2023, Mark Drakeford announced he would stand down as First Minister, following the election of his successor. The ensuing Welsh Labour leadership election was won narrowly by Vaughan Gething. The Gething government lasted only until July 2024 due to two distinct scandals relating to allegations of cronyism[11][12][13] and allegations that Gething had lied about deleting text messages relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.[14][15] During this time, Plaid Cymru left the co-operation agreement.

In the midst of this, at the 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales, Labour won the most seats and the Conservatives were wiped out: losing all their Welsh seats.[16] Later in July, Gething announced he would stand down after a process to select his successor. The following July 2024 Welsh Labour leadership election was uncontested, with Eluned Morgan being elected.

At the UK-wide level, a number of other factors influenced the election, including various issues relating to the Starmer ministry and the ongoing United Kingdom cost-of-living crisis.

In October 2025, Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly by-election from Labour, who had held the seat since the Senedd's inception in 1999 and its Westminister counterpart since the seat's creation in 1918.[17]

Since the middle of the Gething Government, and continuing through successive events, Welsh Labour's polling performance had declined. Welsh Labour had previously been the most successful political party in the democratic era, having the longest winning streak of any political party.[18] The 2026 vote is correspondingly considered to be seismic for Welsh politics[19][20] and was touted as the "most consequential Senedd election since 1999".[21] It has also attracted "unprecedented" interest internationally in Welsh politics, primarily from other European nations.[22] Polls suggested a close race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.[23]

The 2026 Senedd election was the first to feature an online elections information platform, vote.wales, managed by the Electoral Management Board for Wales, part of the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru.[24]

Electoral system

See also: Senedd constituencies and 2026 review of Senedd constituencies

The 2026 Senedd election used a new electoral system following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act. Following conclusion of the count, the Senedd has 96 members, all elected through closed list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) in sixteen six-member constituencies. The 16 constituencies were created by pairing up the 32 Welsh Westminster constituencies.[25][26] Parties nominated up to 8 candidates on their list in each constituency.[27]

Voters were given one ballot, rather than two previously, and voted for one political party (or an independent candidate), rather than individual people, resulting in voters being unable to vote for a specific individual candidate. The available seats will then be distributed proportionally to the parties based on how many votes they received, electing the candidates in the order on their ranked party list. The single ballot paper showed the list of (up to) eight candidates next to each party in order, therefore showing all the candidates in a constituency on the ballot paper.[28][29][30]

In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns, dies, or otherwise leaves office during the term, they will be replaced by the member below them on their party's list rather than a by-election being held. Should the relevant party's list for that constituency be exhausted, the seat will remain vacant for the remainder of the term.

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, and had 60 members, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The new electoral system was used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[31] The next election was held on 7 May 2026.[32]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members would be women; however, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.[33]

Constituencies

Map of the 16 constituencies to be used for the election[b]
  • Afan Ogwr Rhondda
  • Bangor Conwy Môn
  • Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
  • Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
  • Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
  • Caerdydd Penarth
  • Casnewydd Islwyn
  • Ceredigion Penfro
  • Clwyd
  • Fflint Wrecsam
  • Gwynedd Maldwyn
  • Gŵyr Abertawe
  • Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
  • Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
  • Sir Fynwy Torfaen
  • Sir Gaerfyrddin

Incumbent Senedd members

MSs who retired are in italics.

Outgoing members 2026 Senedd election
Old constituency Member Old region Members New constituency Incumbents running Elected members
Aberconwy
  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con)
North Wales
  Carolyn Thomas (Lab)
  Mark Isherwood (Con)
  Sam Rowlands (Con)
  Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid)
Bangor Conwy Môn
  Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, #1)
  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con, #1)
  Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, #1)
  Mair Rowlands (Plaid, #2)
  Elfed Williams (Plaid, #3)
  Helen Jenner (Ref, #1)
  John Clark (Ref, #2)
  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con, #1)
Ynys Môn
  Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid)
Clwyd West
  Darren Millar (Con)
Clwyd
  Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid, #1)
  Hannah Blythyn (Lab, #1)
  Carolyn Thomas (Lab, #2)
  Darren Millar (Con, #1)
  Gareth Davies (Con, #2)
  Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid, #1)
  Becca Martin (Plaid, #1)
  Adrian Mason (Ref, #1)
  Louise Emery (Ref, #2)
  Thomas Montgomery (Ref, #3)
  Darren Millar (Con, #1)
Delyn
  Hannah Blythyn (Lab)
Vale of Clwyd
  Gareth Davies (Con)
Alyn and Deeside
  Jack Sargeant (Lab)
Fflint Wrecsam
  Ken Skates (Lab, #1)
  Jack Sargeant (Lab, #2)
  Sam Rowlands (Con, #1)
Wrexham
  Lesley Griffiths (Lab)
Clwyd South
  Ken Skates (Lab)
Arfon
  Siân Gwenllian (Plaid)
Gwynedd Maldwyn
  Siân Gwenllian (Plaid, #1)
  Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid, #2)
  Russell George (Ind)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
  Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid)
Mid and West Wales
  Cefin Campbell (Plaid)
  Eluned Morgan (Lab)
  Joyce Watson (Lab)
  Jane Dodds (Lib Dem)
Montgomeryshire
  Russell George (Ind)[c]
Carmarthen West and
South Pembrokeshire
  Samuel Kurtz (Con)
Ceredigion Penfro
  Elin Jones (Plaid, #1)
  Eluned Morgan (Lab, #1)
  Paul Davies (Con, #1)
  Samuel Kurtz (Con, #2)
Ceredigion
  Elin Jones (Plaid)
Preseli Pembrokeshire
  Paul Davies (Con)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
  Adam Price (Plaid)
Sir Gaerfyrddin
  Cefin Campbell (Plaid, #1)
  Adam Price (Plaid, #3)
Llanelli
  Lee Waters (Lab)
Brecon and Radnorshire
  James Evans (Ref)[d]
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
  Sioned Williams (Plaid, #1)
  Jane Dodds (Lib Dem, #1)
  James Evans (Ref, #1)
Neath
  Jeremy Miles (Lab)
South Wales West
  Tom Giffard (Con)
  Altaf Hussain (Con)
  Sioned Williams (Plaid)
  Luke Fletcher (Plaid)
Gower
  Rebecca Evans (Lab)
Gŵyr Abertawe
  Tom Giffard (Con, #1)
  Mike Hedges (Lab, #1)
Swansea East
  Mike Hedges (Lab)
Swansea West
  Julie James (Lab)
Aberavon
  David Rees (Lab)
Afan Ogwr Rhondda
  Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab, #1)
  Buffy Williams (Lab, #2)
  David Rees (Lab, #3)
Ogmore
  Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)
Rhondda
  Buffy Williams (Lab)
(South Wales Central)
Bridgend
  Sarah Murphy (Lab)
(South Wales West) Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
  Sarah Murphy (Lab, #1)
  Andrew RT Davies (Con, #1)
  Luke Fletcher (Plaid, #3)
Vale of Glamorgan
  Jane Hutt (Lab)
South Wales Central
  Andrew RT Davies (Con)
  Joel James (Con)
  Rhys ab Owen (Ind)[e]
  Heledd Fychan (Plaid)
Cardiff South and Penarth
  Vaughan Gething (Lab)
Caerdydd Penarth
  Rhys ab Owen (Ind)
Cardiff West
  Mark Drakeford (Lab)
Cardiff Central
  Jenny Rathbone (Lab)
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
  Joel James (Con, #1)
Cardiff North
  Julie Morgan (Lab)
Cynon Valley
  Vikki Howells (Lab)
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
  Heledd Fychan (Plaid, #1)
Pontypridd
  Mick Antoniw (Lab)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
  Dawn Bowden (Lab)
South Wales East
  Laura Anne Jones (Ref)[f]
  Natasha Asghar (Con)
  Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid)
  Delyth Jewell (Plaid)
Blaenau Gwent
  Alun Davies (Lab)
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
  Delyth Jewell (Plaid, #1)
  Lindsay Whittle (Plaid, #2)
  Alun Davies (Lab, #1)
Caerphilly
  Lindsay Whittle (Plaid)[g]
Islwyn
  Rhianon Passmore (Lab)
Casnewydd Islwyn
  Natasha Asghar (Con, #1)
  Jayne Bryant (Lab, #1)
  Rhianon Passmore (Lab, #2)
  Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid, #1)
Newport East
  John Griffiths (Lab)
Newport West
  Jayne Bryant (Lab)
Monmouth
  Peter Fox (Con)
Sir Fynwy Torfaen
  Lynne Neagle (Lab, #1)
  Peter Fox (Con, #1)
  Laura Anne Jones (Ref, #1)
Torfaen
  Lynne Neagle (Lab)

Parties and candidates

Contesting parties

Labour, Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats and the Green Party stood at least 6 candidates in all 16 constituencies.[34][35] In some seats Labour, Conservatives and Plaid Cymru filed 7 or even 8 seats.[34] Other parties stood in at least one constituencies were (with the number of constituencies stood in brackets): Heritage Party (16), Gwlad (6), Open Party (3), Propel (2), Britain's Communist Party (2), TUSC (2), Christian (1), Official Monster Raving Loony Party (1), Social Democratic Party (1) and the Socialist Labour Party (1).[34] 30 independent candidates stood across 14 constituencies.[34]

Party Leader Ideology Seats at dissolution
  Labour Party
Plaid Llafur		 Eluned Morgan
MS for Mid and West Wales (until 7 April 2026)		 Social democracy
British unionism
29 / 60 (48%)
Conservative Party
Ceidwadwyr Cymreig		 Darren Millar
MS for Clwyd West (until 7 April 2026)		 Conservatism
British unionism
13 / 60 (22%)
Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth
MS for Ynys Môn (until 7 April 2026)		 Social democracy
Welsh independence
13 / 60 (22%)
Reform UK Dan Thomas
Not an MS (previous leader of Barnet Council)		 Right-wing populism
Hard Euroscepticism
2 / 60 (3%)
Liberal Democrats
Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru		 Jane Dodds
MS for Mid and West Wales (until 7 April 2026)		 Liberalism
British unionism
1 / 60 (2%)
Green Party
Plaid Werdd		 Anthony Slaughter

Not an MS

 Green politics
Welsh independence
0 / 60 (0%)
Communist Party of Britain
Plaid Gomiwnyddol Gymreig		 Alex Gordon
Not an MS		 Communism
Marxism-Leninism
0 / 60 (0%)
Gwlad Gwyn Wigley Evans
Not an MS		 Welsh nationalism
Welsh independence
0 / 60 (0%)
Heritage Party David Kurten
Not an MS		 British nationalism
Right-wing populism
0 / 60 (0%)
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Plaid Swyddogol yr Anghenfilaidd Ddihirod Gwallgof		 Alan "Howling Laud" Hope
Not an MS		 Political satire
0 / 60 (0%)
Open Party Richard Hadwin
Not an MS
0 / 60 (0%)
Propel Neil McEvoy
Not an MS		 Welsh nationalism
Welsh independence
0 / 60 (0%)
Social Democratic Party William Clouston
Not an MS		 Social democracy
Left-conservatism
0 / 60 (0%)
Socialist Labour Party
Blaid Lafur Sosialaidd		 Jim McDaid
Not an MS		 Socialism
Republicanism
0 / 60 (0%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Dave Nellist
Not an MS		 Socialism
Trotskyism
0 / 60 (0%)
Welsh Christian Party
Plaid Gristnogol		 Jeff Green
Not an MS		 Christian right
Social conservatism
0 / 60 (0%)
Independents N/a
2 / 60 (3%)
Source: BBC

Candidates and results

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are marked with "inc.".[36] Elected members are in bold.

Constituency Order Labour[37] Plaid Cymru[38] Conservative Reform UK[39] Liberal Democrats[40] Green[41] Others and independents
Afan Ogwr Rhondda[42] 1 Huw Irranca-Davies (11,123) (inc.) Sera Evans (24,538) Abigail Mainon (2,831) Benjamin McKenna (22,345) Dean Ronan (1,800) Nigel Pugh (2,561)
  • Captain Beany (Independent)[43]
  • 1. Kimberley Isherwood 2. Logan Jenkins (Heritage)[44]
2 Buffy Williams (5,561.5) (inc.) Alun Cox (12,269) Peter Crocker-Jacques Steve Bayliss (11,172.5) Cen Phillips Anna Tuhey
3 David Rees (inc.) Elyn Stephens (8,179.33) Tony Kear Darren James (7,448.33) Gerald Francis Stephanie Woodhouse
4 Stephanie Grimshaw Danny Grehan (6,134.5) William Martin Louise Musgrave Helen Thomas David Wade
5 Lisa Pritchard Luned-Mair Barratt Rachael Astle Catrin Thomas Jim Hehir Abby-lee Rees
6 Elaine Winstanley Wendy Allsopp Barbara Jones Zakery Weaver James McGettrick Ellis Thomas
7 Dilwar Ali
8 Tamasree Mukhopadhyay
Bangor Conwy Môn[45] 1 Joanna Stallard (4,448) Rhun ap Iorwerth (31,057) (inc.) Janet Finch-Saunders (8,555) (inc.) Helen Jenner (19,440) Leena Farhat (1,591) Tomos Barlow (3,101)
  • Mark Edward (Heritage)
  • Jaime Fitter (Communist)[46]
  • Kathrine Jones (Socialist Labour Party)[47]
  • Sir Grumpus L Shorticus (Official Monster Raving Loony)[48]
2 Emily Owen Mair Rowlands (15,528.5) Harry Saville (4,277.5) John Clark (9,720) David McBride Linda Rogers
3 Margaret Lewis Elfed Williams (10,352.33) Martin Peet Richard John Jones (6,480) Mark Rosenthal Nick Bounds
4 Rebecca Gibbons Dyfed Jones (7,764.25) Samantha Cotton Andrew Winston-Jones Rob Atendstaedt Francis Cookson
5 Huw Vaughan Jones Nia Clwyd Owen David Ashworth Craig Jones Sarah Jackson Vanessa Hall
6 Natasha Jose Vivek Thuppil Lucy Samuel Dafydd Wyn Thomas Preben Vangberg David Bunker
7 Lisa Elfyn Butler
8 Beca Roberts
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni[49] 1 Alun Davies (7,739) (inc.) Delyth Jewell (29,314) (inc.) Gareth Potter (3,353) Llŷr Powell (23,955) Steve Aicheler (1,284) Anne Baker (2,447)
  • Mike Whatley (Independent)
  • Jared Burgess (Heritage)[44]
  • Jordan Brace (Independent)
  • Karen Horan (Open Party)
  • Steve Wright (Independent)
2 Richard Tunnicliffe Lindsay Whittle (14,657) (inc.) Janet Butler Catherine Cullen (11,977.5) David Scullin Alexis Celnik
3 Keiran Russell Niamh Salkeld (9,771.33) John Child Joshua Kim (7,985) Catherine Dowden-King Rachel Roberts
4 Sara Beard Catrin Moss (7,328.5) David West Jonathan Parker (5,988.75) Steve Lloyd Hannah Garcia
5 Simon Dancey Charlotte Bishop Martin Newell Glenda Marie Davies Ivan Westley Aidan Dempsey
6 John Pettit Steven Skivens Fay Rossini-Bromfield Barclay Nickels Juliet Price Jamie Payne
7 Hero Marsden
8
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd[50] 1 Mahaboob Basha (7,086) Sioned Williams (23,276) (inc.) Tyler Chambers (6,821) James Evans (26,897) (inc.) Jane Dodds (9,549) (inc.) Nathan Goldup-John (5,405)
  • Philip Owen (Gwlad)[51]
  • Jennifer Roberts (Heritage)[44]
  • 1. Jeff Green 2. Sue Green (Welsh Christian Party)
  • Beverley Baynham (Independent)
  • Joe Hale (Independent)
  • Dai Richards (Independent[h])
2 Alex Sims Rebeca Phillips (11,638) Elizabeth Hill-O'Shea Iain McIntosh (13,448.5) Jackie Charlton (4,774.5) Charlotte Ajomale-Evans
3 Sarah Thomas Andrew Jenkins (7,758.67) Jane Lyons David Mills (8,965.67) Phoebe Jenkins Ami Dhaliwal
4 Elliot Wigfall Justin Horrell Matthew Gilbert Stephanie Moira Charles (6,724.25) Will Lloyd Eric Rosoman Matthews
5 Cyriac George Kate Heneghan Hannah Jarvis Dewi Thomas Peter Chapman Kathy Oakwood
6 Chelsea Edwards Chris Williams Amanda Davies Celfyn Furlong Dylan Calved Imogen da Silva
7 Morgan Pritchard
8
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf[52] 1 Shav Taj (11,261) Dafydd Trystan (32,617) Joel James (8,479) (inc.) Cai Parry-Jones (17,335) Rodney Berman (8,442) Paul Rock (9,036)
  • Nikki Brooke (Heritage)[44]
  • 1. Keith Parry 2. Roy Leyshon (Propel)
  • 1. John Aaron Williams 2. Helen Perriam 3. David Bartlett (Welsh TUSC)[53]
  • Lawrence Gwynn (Independent[i])
2 Jackie Jones (5,630.5) Zaynub Akbar (16,308.5) Samantha Cohan David Parsons (8,667.5) Joe Carter Charlotte Husnjak (4,518)
3 Dan De'Ath Nick Carter (10,872.33) Joe Roberts Aaeron Giboney Julie Goodfellow Laurie Gray
4 Sarah Merry Andrea Gibson (8,154.25) Ffinian Elliott Kenzie Hollingsworth Evans Jon Shimmin Jenny Mears
5 Jen Burke Joseff Gnagbo Lyn Hudson Jeffrey Armstrong Imran Latif Robyn Thomas
6 Lee Bridgeman Morgan Barber-Rogers Jane Lucas Valerie Ann Cousins Rosemary Chaloner David Fitzpatrick
7 Matt Hexter
8 Bernie Bowen-Thomson
Caerdydd Penarth[54] 1 Huw Thomas (10,907) Anna Brychan (36,136) Calum Davies (6,818) Joseph Martin (15,525) Cadan ap Tomos (2,260) Anthony Slaughter (12,113)
  • Robert Griffiths (Communist)[46]
  • 1. Neil McEvoy 2. Ceri McEvoy (Propel)[55]
  • Rhiannon Morrissey (Heritage)[44]
  • Rhys ab Owen (inc.) (Independent)[56]
2 Ruba Sivanangam (5,453.5) Kiera Marshall (18,068) James Hamblin Mark Reckless (7,762.5) Irfan Latif Tessa Marshall (6,056.5)
3 Peter Bradbury Leticia Gonzalez (12,045.33) Dominic Davies Robert Thomas Elinor Dixon Rowan Stanger
4 Steve Brooks Malcolm Phillips (9,034) Judith Child Rachel Nugent Finn Barry Southwell Tavgar Bulbas
5 Mutale Merrill Matthew Hawkins Archie Draycott Paul Campbell Chris Cogger Max O'Hara
6 Kanaya Singh Tomos Stokes Eddy Oko-Jaja Ruth Hancock Ashley Wood Iwan Sinclair
7 Laura Rochefort
8
Casnewydd Islwyn[57] 1 Jayne Bryant (10,622) (inc.) Peredur Owen Griffiths (23,069) (inc.) Natasha Asghar (8,847) (inc.) Dan Thomas (25,571) Mike Hamilton (2,853) Lauren James (5,898)
  • Mike Ford (349) (Heritage)[44]
  • 1. Justna Muhith (435) 2. John Horan (Open Party)[58]
  • Taran Clayton (Independent)
2 Rhianon Passmore (5,311) (inc.) Lyn Ackerman (11,534.5) Toby Jones (4,423.5) Art Wright (12,785.5) John Miller Phil Davies
3 Chris Carter Rhys Mills (7,689.67) Jake Enea Marie-Claire Lea (8,523.67) Nurul Islam Zaynab Greengrass
4 Rhian Howells Josh Rawcliffe Georgina Webb Nicholas Jones Harun Rashid Kerry Vosper
5 Julie Sangani Jonathan Clark Adam Morris Rebecca Senior Mary Lloyd David Mayer
6 Stephen Marshall Sarah Henton Rebecca Nyasha Mamhende Tomos Llewellyn Jeff Evans Andrew Were
7 David Chinnick
8
Ceredigion Penfro[59] 1 Eluned Morgan (6,495) (inc.) Elin Jones (31,943) (inc.) Paul Davies (14,789) (inc.) Claire Archibald (23,003) Sandra Jervis (4,613) Amy Nicholass (6,324)
  • Aaron Carey (Independent)
  • George Chadzy (Independent[j])
  • Paul Dowson (Independent[k])
  • Gwyn Wigley Evans (Gwlad)[51]
  • Elizabeth Davies (Heritage)[44]
2 Marc Tierney Kerry Ferguson (15,971.5) Samuel Kurtz (7,394.5) (inc.) Paul Marr (11,501.5) Alistair Cameron Tomass Jerminovics
3 Joshua Phillips Anna Nicholl (10,647.67) Claire George Michael Allen (7,667.67) Thomas Hughes James Purchase
4 Margaret Greenaway Cris Tomos (7,985.75) Brian Murphy Elisa Randall Lee Herring Morgan Phillips
5 Tansaim Hussain-Gul Colin Nosworthy Gill Evans Peter John Andrew Lye Rosie O'Toole
6 Luke Davies-Jones Clive Davies Claire Jones Bernard Holton Maggie Robinson Kezia Hine
7 Peter Huw Jenkins Owain Jones
8 Matt Adams
Clwyd[60] 1 Hannah Blythyn (8,314) (inc.) Llyr Gruffydd (22,583) (inc.) Darren Millar (16,193) (inc.) Adrian Mason (25,741) David Wilkins (2,355) Martyn Hogg (4,219)
  • Robert Redhead (Heritage)[44]
2 Carolyn Thomas (inc.) Becca Martin (11,291.5) Gareth Davies (8,096.5)(inc.) Louise Emery (12,870.5) Bobby Feeley Carly Murdoch-Dyson
3 Crispin Jones Oliver Bradley-Hughes (7,627.67) Gareth Ffowcs Williams Thomas Montgomery (8,580.33) Nanette Davies Lucy Sutton
4 Ellen Jones Paul Penlington Justine Evans David Smith (6,435.25) Simon Croft Karl McNaughton
5 Rajeev Metri Delyth Jones Sylvia Clough-Hughes Kristian Salkeld Jason Higgins David Blainey
6 Catherine Claydon Abdul Khan Damon Richards-Gwilliam Tony Thomas Keith Kirwan Cheryl Buxton-Sait
7 Arran Fearn Mike Gebreyohanes
8 Cheryl Williams
Fflint Wrecsam[61] 1 Ken Skates (8,555) (inc.) Carrie Harper (18,440) Sam Rowlands (9,017) (inc.) Cristiana Emsley (25,349) Tim Sly (2,647) Lee Lavery (5,138)
  • Kristina Renshaw (Heritage)[44]
  • Andrew Williams (Independent[l])
  • Daniel McNay (Social Democratic Party)
2 Jack Sargeant (4,277.5) (inc.) Marc Jones (9,220) Jeremy Kent (4,508.5) Nigel Williams (12,674.5) Richard Marbrow Seki Tabasuares
3 Corin Jarvis Kayleigh Unitt (6,146.67) James Ecroyd William Paul Ashton (8,449.67) Heather Prydderch Graham Bannister-Kelly
4 Norma Ann Davies Dean Davies Kathy Cracknell Helen Brown Lionel Prouve Suzanne Glascott
5 George Stephen Thomas Annette Davies Alex Rooney Michael Budden Carole O'Toole Kathryn Price
6 Tracey Jane Sutton-Postlewaite Andy Gallanders Lewis Norton David William Vernon Graham Kelly Helen Mitchell
7
8
Gwynedd Maldwyn[62] 1 Ian Parry (4,466) Siân Gwenllian (36,087) (inc.) Aled Davies (5,650) Andrew Griffin (22,667) Glyn Preston (4,554) Nathan Jarvis (4,090)
  • Jeremy Davies (Gwlad)[51]
  • Mattie Ginsberg (Heritage)[44]
  • Russell George (inc.) (Independent)[56]
  • Monty Kennard (Independent)
2 Dawn McGuinness Mabon ap Gwynfor (18,043.5) (inc.) Henrietta Hensher Claire Johnson-Wood (11,333.5) Stephen Churchman Nicole Wait
3 Steffan Chambers Beca Brown (12,029) Peter Lewington Karl Lewis (7,555.67) Richard Church Sue MacFarlane
4 Dana Davies Elwyn Vaughan (9,021.75) Hedd Thomas Phillip Robinson Pete Roberts Sian Thomas
5 Mathew Norman Elin Hywel (7,217.4) Daniel Spilsbury Mark Blake Carol Robinson Curtis Wilford
6 Morgan Peters Donna O'Brien Roger Cracknell Richard Pendry Chris Lloyd Edward Mason
7 Victoria Evans
8 Elfed ap Elwyn
Gŵyr Abertawe[63] 1 Mike Hedges (11,195) (inc.) Gwyn Williams (25,076) Tom Giffard (7,523) (inc.) Francesca O'Brien (21,641) Sam Bennett (6,262) Chris Evans (6,383)
  • Christy Galt (Heritage)[44]
  • 1. Ben Golightly 2. Mark Evans (Welsh TUSC)[64]
  • Katon Bouzalakos (Independent)
  • Dan Brown (Independent)
  • Emma Mcnamara (Independent)
2 Rob Stewart (5,597.5) Safa Elhassan (12,538) Tara-Jane Sutcliffe Steven Rodaway (10,820.5) Helen Ceri Clarke Lilian Martin
3 Rebecca Fogarty John Davies (8,358.67) Jake Harry Wayne Parsons (7,213.67) Mike O'Carroll Nigel Hill
4 Rebecca Francis‑Davies Rhiannon Barrar (6,269) Carley Morgan Gareth Turner Christopher Holley Cari Bishop-Jones
5 Kemba Hadaway‑Morgan Dafydd Williams Laura Gilbert Scott Thorley Mary Jones Will Beasley
6 Patience Bentu Harri Roberts Idin Ghotbi Nicola Clarke Howard Evans David Halfacree
7
8
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg[65] 1 Sarah Murphy (9,518) (inc.) Mark Hooper (27,407) Andrew RT Davies (12,464) (inc.) Sarah Cooper Lesadd (24,602) Steven Rajam (2,175) Amy Greenfield (4,220)
  • Gillian White (429) (Heritage)
  • William Jeffreys (221) (Independent)
  • Caroline Jones (651) (Independent[m])[66]
  • Lucia Wyatt (114) (Independent)
2 Huw David (4,759) Sarah Rees (13,703.5) Altaf Hussain (6,232) (inc.) Gareth Thomas (12,301) Gabriela Ferguson Saar Lenaerts
3 Carys Stallard Luke Fletcher (9,135.67)(inc.) Jonathan Pratt Paul Young (8,200.67) Paula Gülen Yates Rob Sage
4 Jonathan Cox Marianne Cowpe Kate Thomas Emma Clatworthy Wayne Street Aaron Steer
5 Jon-Paul Blundell Ian Johnson Rebekah Fudge Valerie Ellis Joe Boyle Todd Bailey
6 Helen Payne Iolo Cauldy Michael Bryan Dennis Coughlin Matthew Dixon Andy Roberts
7 Neelo Farr Dennis Clarke
8 Rhys Goode
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr[67] 1 Vikki Howells (9,344) (inc.) Heledd Fychan (28,687) (inc.) Adam Robinson (4,339) Jason O'Connell (22,217) Neil Feist (1,393) Angela Karadog (3,466)
  • Beth Winter (Independent[n])[68]
  • Stef Morgan (Gwlad)[51]
  • Julie Lloyd (Heritage)[44]
  • Joseph Biddulph (Independent)
  • Dai Williams (Independent)
2 Lloyd Watkins (4,672) Lis McLean (14,343.5) David William Jones David Hughes (11,108.5) David Seale James Bennett
3 Chris Binding Sara Crowley (9,562.33) Roxanne Rees Mark Lawrence (7,405.67) Alec Dauncey John Le Marchant Dane
4 Mitch Theaker Ian Gwynne (7,171.75) Lee Davies Martin Roberts Nick Beckett Georgina Budd
5 Mustapha Maohoub Farrell Perks Oliver Morgan John Ball Chris Passmore Zara Siddique
6 Anna Williams Price Ioan Bellin Jayne McKenna Jamie Loftus Hayden Lewis Jeff Baxter
7 Jane Gebbie
8
Sir Fynwy Torfaen[69] 1 Lynne Neagle (11,672) (inc.) Matthew Jones (18,275) Peter Fox (13,394) (inc.) Laura Anne Jones (24,155) (inc.) Kevin Wilkins (2,742) Ian Chandler (6,375)
  • Brad Williams (Gwlad)[51]
  • Emma Meredith (Heritage)[44]
  • 1. Joseph Nicholson 2. David Atkins (Open Party)
  • Owen Lewis (Independent)
  • Welsh Pool (Independent)
2 Anthony Hunt (5,836) Donna Cushing (9,137.5) Richard John (6,697) Stephen Senior (12,077.5) Brendan Roberts Emily Williams
3 Laura Wright Jayne Israel (6,091.67) Lisa Dymock Bob Blacker (8,051.67) Vicky Hepburn-John Charlie Aldous
4 Catrin Maby David Johnson Nathan Edmunds David Rowlands Anthea

Dewhurst

 Lauren Sellers
5 Ben Callard Loti Glyn Rachel Buckler Mark Urrutia Martin Sutherland Darren Share
6 Nick Byrne Huw Evans Chase Blount Gerard Hancock Iwan Thomas Angus Paget
7 Su McConnel
8
Sir Gaerfyrddin[70] 1 Calum Higgins (6,458) Cefin Campbell (36,160) (inc.) Richard Williams (5,853) Gareth Beer (27,542) Justin Griffiths (1,662) Rob James (3,832)
  • Stephen Williams (Independent)
  • Wayne Erasmus (Gwlad)[51]
  • Jason Barker (Heritage)[44]
  • Carl Peters-Bond (Independent)
  • Jonathan Rose (Independent[o])
2 Dawn Evans Nerys Evans (18,080) Lee Stabbins Carmelo Colasanto (13,771) Julian Tandy Nick Pearce
3 Martyn Palfreman Adam Price (12,053.33) (inc.) Oliver Wilson Sarah Edwards (9,180.67) Jonathan Burree Craig Davies
4 David Darkin Mari Arthur (9,040) Bradley Williams Christopher Brooke (6,885.5) Lynne Wilkins David Lishman
5 Lewis Davies Iwan Griffiths Natasha Rowlands Alan Cole Monica French Helen Draper
6 Andre McPherson Abi Thomas Ben Sansome Michelle Beer Caryl Tandy Michael Willis
7 Taylor Reynolds
8 Jordan Griffiths

Campaign

According to Professor John Curtice, campaign issues include the economy, cost of living, health and social care services, and immigration.[71] However, immigration is not controlled by the Senedd and is a power reserved to the UK parliament.[72][73]

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here", and also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them.[74] This election has been described as pivotal for the premiership of Keir Starmer.[75] Morgan warned that a "threat to the United Kingdom will become real" if Plaid and the Green Party gain a majority in the Senedd, calling for further devolution, calling it the "best way to lower the temperature and raise trust."[76]

A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."[77] In April 2025, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.[78]

On 21 March 2025, Plaid Cymru announced a pledge to introduce a weekly direct child benefit titled the 'Cynnal' payment,[79] which would share similarities to the Scottish Child Payment introduced by the Scottish Government. This was followed by a pledge on 10 October to expand universal childcare in Wales, bringing 20 hours of childcare a week for 48 weeks a year, eligible to all children aged 9 months to 4 years.[80]

After becoming the most popular party leader in opinion polls in early 2025, ap Iorwerth ruled out holding an independence referendum in a first term of a Plaid Cymru government, in contrast to the party's 2021 manifesto, stating that they still kept a "long term ambition" of Welsh independence.[81]

Following the election of Zack Polanski as Green Party leader in September 2025, the party's popularity rose sharply.[82] Their positive relationship with Plaid Cymru could lead to collaboration of some sort; however, ap Iorwerth said he would prefer a minority government over any coalition.[83][84]

On 5 February 2026 Reform UK announced Dan Thomas as their leader in Wales, although he was an unknown figure in Wales having moved away in 1999 and was a Conservative Party councillor on Barnet London Borough Council from 2006 to 2025.[85]

On 27 and 28 February Plaid Cymru held their spring conference, and announced their plan for first 100 days in government which announced many of their policies before their full manifesto.[86]

On 1 March 2026, Eluned Morgan announced that if Welsh Labour wins the Senedd election they would spend £4 billion to build the "hospitals of the future".[87]

On 2 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their manifesto.[88] They proposed to build the M4 Relief Road, take 1 pence off the basic rate of income tax alongside scrapping business rates for small firms and re-establishing the Welsh Development Agency. The party also announced its intention to reverse the 20mph national default speed limit, scrap the Nation of Sanctuary initiative, and place restrictions on wind farm developments.[89]

On 3 March 2026, the Welsh Liberal Democrats called for £10 million for cross‑border healthcare in Powys.[90]

On 5 March 2026, Reform UK launched their Welsh manifesto in Newport, where Nigel Farage called the election a referendum on the Prime Minister's leadership.[91] The party pledged several policies that were similarly included in the Welsh Conservative manifesto, such as 1 pence income tax cuts, reversing of the default 20mph speed limit and scrapping the Nation of Sanctuary. The party also pledged to build the M4 relief road, intending to establish it as a toll road, make local people in Wales a priority for social housing, abolish Natural Resources Wales, as well as proposing a ban on any new onshore wind farms.[92][91]

On 26 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their election campaign in Swansea.[93]

On 27 March 2026, a leading Reform UK candidate - who was formerly a Conservative special adviser - stepped down from contesting the Senedd election after a photo was published appearing to show him performing a Nazi salute.[94] Nigel Farage said the photo "looked terrible" and he "wouldn't approve of it" but that the candidate would not be kicked out of the party.[94] The photo was published the day prior by Nation.Cymru and while the date of the photo has not be confirmed, Reform UK say it is from 2019.[94]

On 30 March 2026, Eluned Morgan launched the Welsh Labour manifesto at an event in Swansea. Alongside their existing pledges the party committed to a freeze on the Welsh rates of income tax, pressing medical need being seen within 48 hours, extend free school meals to all secondary school pupils in receipt of universal credit, create 20,000 new childcare spaces and deliver 100,000 new homes over the next 10 years.[95] On the same day Plaid Cymru launched their election campaign in Bedwas, with Rhun ap Iorwerth calling the election a two-horse race between Plaid and Reform for who will become the largest party.[96]

By 31 March 2026, three Reform UK Senedd candidates had quit the party.[97] Their reasons for leaving included the party's candidate selection process, betrayal of party members and prioritisation of former Conservative politicians over local people, with two of the three stating the party has too many former Conservatives.[97][98][99] One of the former candidates criticised the party's top candidates for being driven by "power, money and self-interest".[100]

On 31 March 2026, the Green Party election campaign was launched by Anthony Slaughter with the presence of Zack Polanski, where they also unveiled their full slate of candidates.[101] The Green Party's pledges include lowering water bills via public ownership of water companies and rent controls.[101]

On 7 April 2026, former UKIP politician Caroline Jones announced that she had left Reform UK due to parachute candidates being put on Reform constituencies lists before local members and 'allegations relating to racism and discrimination'.[102]

On 8 April 2026, the Welsh Liberal Democrats campaign was launched by Jane Dodds in Swansea.[103] Campaign pledges include £300 million for social care.[104] Their manifesto was launched on 14 April.[105]

Election debates

2026 Senedd election debates
Date scheduled Organisers Moderator(s)  P  Present[p]    S  Surrogate[q]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee   INV Invited 
Labour Plaid Cymru Conservatives Reform UK Lib Dems Green Venue Ref.
17 March BBC Wales Nick Servini S
Skates[r]		 S
Harper[s]		 S
Rowlands[t]		 S
Evans[u]		 S
Sly[v]		 S
Lavery[w]		 Wrexham [106]
19 March
  • Tinopolis
  • Urdd
 Siôn Jenkins S
Thomas[x]		 S
Jewell[y]		 S
Giffard[z]		 S
Edwards[aa]		 P
Dodds		 S
Marshall[ab]		 All Nations Centre, Cardiff [107]
8 April WalesOnline Ruth Mosalski P
Morgan		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 P
Millar		 P
Thomas		 P
Dodds		 P
Slaughter		 Cardiff School of Journalism [108]
16 April BBC Question Time Fiona Bruce S
Irranca-Davies[ac]		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 P
Millar		 P
Thomas		 P
Dodds		 P
Slaughter		 Cardiff [109]
19 April ITV Wales Adrian Masters P
Morgan		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 P
Millar		 P
Thomas		 P
Dodds		 P
Slaughter		 Senedd [110]
21 April Channel 4 Krishnan Guru-Murthy P
Morgan		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 P
Millar		 P
Thomas		 P
Dodds		 P
Slaughter		 Senedd [111]
23 April
  • BBC Cymru
  • Tinopolis
 Bethan Rhys Roberts P
Morgan		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 S
Davies[ad]		 S
Jenner[ae]		 P
Dodds		 S
Marshall[af]		 Canolfan S4C, Yr Egin, Carmarthen [112][113][114]
28 April BBC Wales Bethan Rhys Roberts P
Morgan		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 P
Millar		 P
Thomas		 P
Dodds		 P
Slaughter		 BBC Wales Headquarters, Cardiff [112]
30 April LBC Iain Dale P
Morgan		 P
Ap Iorwerth		 P
Millar		 P
Thomas		 P
Dodds		 P
Slaughter		 Global Studios, Cardiff [115]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election
This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election. (edit | history)

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.[116][117]

Labour led in most polls until early 2025, when opinion polls began to show Plaid Cymru and Reform as each leading or tied.

LOESS curve of polling conducted
  Sample size below 1,000.[ag]
Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 Lab Con PC Grn LD Ref Others Lead
7 May 2026 2026 Senedd election[119] – 11.1% 10.7% 35.4% 6.7% 4.5% 29.3% 2.3% 6.1
1–6 May 2026 FindOutNow N/A 2,001 9% 11% 35% 9% 6% 28% 2% 7
1–6 May 2026 Survation N/A 1,054 15% 10% 30% 7% 6% 28% 3% 2
27 Apr – 4 May 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 4,647 12% 9% 33% 8% 6% 29% 3% 4
2 Mar – 27 Apr 2026 More in Common N/A 2,159 16% 12% 30% 9% 4% 27% 2% 3
17–23 Apr 2026 Survation S4C/Aberystwyth University 834 15% 10% 28% 10% 4% 30% 4% 2
18–22 Apr 2026 Find Out Now Plaid Cymru 2,012 10% 13% 29% 11% 6% 27% 4% 2
6–15 Apr 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 2,387 13% 8% 29% 10% 6% 29% 4% Tie
31 Mar – 13 Apr 2026 JL Partners The Telegraph 2,050 16% 12% 29% 9% 6% 25% 4% 4
30 Jan – 10 Apr 2026 More in Common N/A 2,519 21% 11% 25% 10% 7% 25% 2% Tie
2–8 Apr 2026 Ipsos N/A 747 15% 12% 30% 10% 6% 25% 2% 5
2–22 Mar 2026 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 459 17% 9% 30% 11% 6% 27% 2% 3
9–18 Mar 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 2,978 13% 7% 33% 12% 5% 27% 4% 6
15 Feb – 3 Mar 2026 More in Common N/A 851 20% 10% 26% 10% 7% 26% 1% Tie
30 Jan – 10 Feb 2026 More in Common N/A 806 20% 13% 24% 5% 6% 31% 1% 7
19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 486 20% 10% 29% 7% 5% 27% 1% 2
5–12 Jan 2026 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,220 10% 10% 37% 13% 5% 23% 2% 14
16 Dec – 4 Jan 2026 FindOutNow N/A 1,503 12% 12% 30% 9% 7% 29% 2% 1
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025 YouGov Cardiff University 1,891 10% 10% 33% 9% 6% 30% 2% 3
10–30 Nov 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 505 21% 12% 26% 9% 3% 27% 1% 1
23 Oct 2025 2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
22 Sep – 12 Oct 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 533 23% 11% 22% 9% 4% 30% 2% 7
4–10 Sep 2025 YouGov Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,232 14% 11% 30% 6% 6% 29% 4% 1
18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 400 27% 13% 21% 6% 5% 25% 2% 2
18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 More in Common Sky News 883 23% 10% 26% 4% 7% 28% 2% 2
5–16 Jun 2025 FindOutNow N/A 2,101 18% 11% 27% 7% 7% 29% 1% 2
23–30 Apr 2025 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University 1,265 18% 13% 30% 5% 7% 25% 2% 5
10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 Survation N/A 809 27% 15% 24% 5% 5% 24% 1% 3
3–23 Mar 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 1,000 27% 16% 24% 5% 4% 23% 1% 3
25–29 Nov 2024 YouGov[120] Barn Cymru 1,121 23% 19% 24% 6% 5% 23% 1% 1
4–24 Nov 2024 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 500 27% 18% 17% 6% 6% 24% 2% 3
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 Survation[s 1] Reform UK 2,006 29% 18% 20% 7% 7% 19% 1% 9
24 Jul – 6 Aug 2024 Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[121]
5–18 Jul 2024 Welsh Election Study N/A 2,565 25% 16% 24% 6% 6% 16%
8%
AWA on 7%
Other on 1%
1
4 Jul 2024 2024 United Kingdom general election
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 27% 18% 23% 5% 6% 18% 3% 4
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 36% 22% 18% 6% 6% 11%
2%
AWA on 2%
Other on 0%
14
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 30% 19% 23% 6% 6% 12% 4% 7
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 37% 20% 20% 5% 3% 10%
5%
AWA on 5%
Other on 0%
17
8 May 2024 The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (regional)[122] – 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 1.1% 8.2% 11.1
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (constituency)[122] – 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 1.6% 4.9% 1.6% 5.6% 13.8

Seat projections

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election § Seat projections
This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election. (edit | history)

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

49 seats needed for a majority.

Seat projections by poll aggregators
Organisation Dates
conducted		 Lab Con PC Grn LD Ref Others Majority
2026 election 7 May 2026 9 7 43 2 1 34 0 Plaid Cymru −6
YouGov 25 Apr – 4 May 2026 12 4 43 2 1 34 0 Plaid Cymru −6
YouGov 6 Apr – 15 Apr 2026 12 3 36 7 1 37 0 Reform −12
More in Common 30 Jan – 10 Apr 2026 24 7 30 4 3 28 0 Plaid Cymru −19
Beaufort Research 2 – 22 Mar 2026 15 6 37 6 2 30 0 Plaid Cymru −12
YouGov 9 – 18 Mar 2026 12 1 43 10 0 30 0 Plaid Cymru −6
Beaufort Research 19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 23 7 35 1 1 29 0 Plaid Cymru −14
YouGov 5 – 12 Jan 2026 8 6 45 11 3 23 0 Plaid Cymru −4
YouGov 28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025 8 6 39 5 3 35 0 Plaid Cymru −10
Cavendish Cymru/NationCymru–Beaufort 21 October 2025 24 7 25 2 1 37 0 Reform −12
2021 election 6 May 2021 30 16 13 0 1 0 0 Labour −1

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

MS Constituency/Region First elected Party Date announced
Mark Drakeford Cardiff West 2011 Labour 9 August 2023[123]
Vaughan Gething Cardiff South and Penarth 2011 Labour 7 September 2024[124]
Lee Waters Llanelli 2016 Labour 24 October 2024[125]
Dawn Bowden Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 2016 Labour 17 January 2025[126]
Mick Antoniw Pontypridd 2011 Labour 24 January 2025[127]
Joyce Watson Mid and West Wales 2007 Labour 25 January 2025[128]
Rebecca Evans Gower 2011 Labour 8 February 2025
Julie Morgan Cardiff North 2011 Labour 11 February 2025[129]
Lesley Griffiths Wrexham 2007 Labour 14 February 2025[130]
John Griffiths Newport East 1999 Labour 17 February 2025[131]
Jane Hutt Vale of Glamorgan 1999 Labour 21 February 2025[132]
Julie James Swansea West 2011 Labour 21 February 2025[132]
Jenny Rathbone Cardiff Central 2011 Labour 21 February 2025[133]
Jeremy Miles Neath 2016 Labour 19 September 2025[134]
Mark Isherwood North Wales 2003 Conservatives 26 March 2026[135]

Results

2026 Senedd election results
Party Votes % Seats
Plaid Cymru 444,665 35.41 43
Reform UK 367,985 29.30 34
Labour 139,203 11.08 9
Conservative 134,926 10.74 7
Green Party 84,608 6.74 2
Liberal Democrats 56,012 4.46 1
Heritage Party 5,474 0.44 0
Propel 4,032 0.32 0
Gwlad 2,479 0.20 0
Open Party 684 0.05 0
Welsh Christian Party 456 0.04 0
Britain's Communist Party 354 0.03 0
Socialist Labour Party 285 0.02 0
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 279 0.02 0
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 244 0.02 0
Social Democratic Party 165 0.01 0
Independents 14,063 1.12 0
Total 1,255,914 100.00 96
Registered voters/turnout 2,433,921 51.6
Source: Sky News BBC
Constituency Votes Members
PC Reform Labour Cons Green Lib Dem Other 1 2 3 4 5 6
Afan Ogwr Rhondda 24,538 22,345 11,123 2,831 2,561 1,800 1,251 Sera Evans (PC) Benjamin McKenna (Ref) Alun Cox (PC) Steve Bayliss (Ref) Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab) Elyn Stephens (PC)
Bangor Conwy Môn 31,057 19,440 4,448 8,555 3,101 1,591 938 Rhun ap Iorwerth (PC) Helen Jenner (Ref) Mair Rowlands (PC) Elfed Williams (PC) John Clarke (Ref) Janet Finch-Saunders (Con)
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni 29,314 23,955 7,739 3,353 2,447 1,284 1,741 Delyth Jewell (PC) Llŷr Powell (Ref) Lindsay Whittle (PC) Catherine Cullen (Ref) Niamh Salkeld (PC) Joshua Kim (Ref)
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd 23,276 26,897 7,086 6,821 5,405 9,549 2,062 James Evans (Ref) Sioned Williams (PC) Iain McIntosh (Ref) Rebeca Phillips (PC) Jane Dodds (LD) David Mills (Ref)
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf 32,617 17,335 11,261 8,479 9,036 8,442 1,050 Dafydd Trystan (PC) Cai Parry-Jones (Ref) Zaynub Akbar (PC) Shav Taj (Lab) Nick Carter (PC) Paul Rock (Grn)
Caerdydd Penarth 36,136 15,525 10,907 6,818 12,113 2,260 4,294 Anna Brychan (PC) Kiera Marshall (PC) Joseph Martin (Ref) Anthony Slaughter (Grn) Leticia Gonzalez (PC) Huw Thomas (Lab)
Casnewydd Islwyn 23,069 25,571 10,622 8,847 5,898 2,683 1,008 Dan Thomas (Ref) Peredur Owen Griffiths (PC) Art Wright (Ref) Lyn Ackerman (PC) Jayne Bryant (Lab) Natasha Asghar (Con)
Ceredigion Penfro 31,943 23,003 6,495 14,789 6,324 4,613 1,986 Elin Jones (PC) Susan Archibald (Ref) Kerry Ferguson (PC) Paul Davies (Con) Paul Marr (Ref) Anna Nicholl (PC)
Clwyd 22,583 25,741 8,314 16,193 4,219 2,355 352 Adrian Mason (Ref) Llŷr Gruffydd (PC) Darren Millar (Con) Gareth Davies (Ref) Becca Martin (PC) Thomas Montgomery (Ref)
Fflint Wrecsam 18,440 25,349 8,555 9,017 5,138 2,647 850 Cristiana Emsley (Ref) Nigel Williams (Ref) Carrie Harper (PC) Marc Jones (PC) Sam Rowlands (Con) Ken Skates (Lab)
Gwynedd Maldwyn 36,087 22,667 4,466 5,650 4,090 4,554 4,176 Siân Gwenllian (PC) Andrew Griffin (Ref) Mabon ap Gwynfor (PC) Beca Brown (PC) Claire Johnson-Wood (Ref) Elwyn Vaughan (PC)
Gŵyr Abertawe 25,076 21,641 11,195 7,523 6,383 6,262 642 Gwyn Williams (PC) Francesca O'Brien (Ref) Safa Elhassan (PC) Mike Hedges (Lab) Steven Rodaway (Ref) John Davies (PC)
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg 27,407 24,602 9,518 12,464 4,220 2,175 1,415 Mark Hooper (PC) Sarah Cooper-Lesadd (Ref) Sarah Rees (PC) Andrew RT Davies (Con) Gareth Thomas (Ref) Sarah Murphy (Lab)
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr 28,687 22,217 9,344 4,339 3,466 1,393 3,182 Heledd Fychan (PC) Jason O'Connell (Ref) Lis McLean (PC) David Hughes (Ref) Sara Crowley (PC) Vikki Howells (Lab)
Sir Fynwy Torfaen 18,275 24,155 11,672 13,394 6,375 2,742 1,093 Laura Anne Jones (Ref) Matthew Jones (PC) Peter Fox (Con) Stephen Senior (Ref) Lynne Neagle (Lab) Donna Cushing (PC)
Sir Gaerfyrddin 36,160 27,542 6,458 5,853 3,832 1,662 2,476 Cefin Campbell (PC) Gareth Beer (Ref) Nerys Evans (PC) Carmelo Colasanto (Ref) Adam Price (PC) Sarah Edwards (Ref)

Members who lost their seats

16 incumbents lost their seats:[136]

MS Former constituency/region First elected Party Constituency
Rhys ab Owen South Wales Central 2021 Independent Caerdydd Penarth
Hannah Blythyn Delyn 2016 Labour Clwyd
Alun Davies Blaenau Gwent 2007 Labour Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
Gareth Davies Vale of Clwyd 2021 Conservatives Clwyd
Luke Fletcher South Wales West 2021 Plaid Cymru Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
Russell George Montgomeryshire 2011 Independent Gwynedd Maldwyn
Tom Giffard South Wales West 2021 Conservatives Gŵyr Abertawe
Altaf Hussain South Wales West 2015 Conservatives Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
Joel James South Wales Central 2021 Conservatives Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
Samuel Kurtz Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 2021 Conservatives Ceredigion Penfro
Eluned Morgan Mid and West Wales 2016 Labour Ceredigion Penfro
Rhianon Passmore Islwyn 2016 Labour Casnewydd Islwyn
David Rees Aberavon 2011 Labour Afan Ogwr Rhondda
Jack Sargeant Alyn and Deeside 2018 Labour Fflint Wrecsam
Carolyn Thomas North Wales 2021 Labour Clwyd
Buffy Williams Rhondda 2021 Labour Afan Ogwr Rhondda

Aftermath

Morgan resigned as leader of Welsh Labour after failing to be elected in Ceredigion Penfro.[137] Ken Skates was declared as interim Welsh Labour leader.[138]

Notes

  1. ^ Rhys ab Owen was later suspended from the party, sitting as an independent. In October 2025, Lindsay Whittle was elected in the 2025 Caerphilly by-election.
  2. ^ Labelled using their sole Welsh names, with Caerdydd being the Welsh name for Cardiff
  3. ^ Russell George was elected as a Conservative MS, but was suspended from the party
  4. ^ James Evans was elected as a Conservative MS, but was suspended from the party and joined Reform UK.
  5. ^ Rhys ab Owen was elected as a Plaid Cymru MS, but was suspended from the party
  6. ^ Laura Anne Jones was elected as a Conservative MS, but later defected to Reform UK
  7. ^ Lindsay Whittle was elected in a by-election
  8. ^ was a member of Restore Britain on registration of candidacy date. Also has previously been a member of Heritage Party, Advance UK and Reform UK
  9. ^ was a member of Reform UK until 1 April 2026
  10. ^ was a member of Advance UK until 19 March 2026
  11. ^ was a member of Restore Britain on registration of candidacy date
  12. ^ was a member of Reform UK on registration of candidacy date
  13. ^ was a member of Reform UK until 6 April 2026
  14. ^ was a member of Your Party until 2 February 2026
  15. ^ was a member of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party on registration of candidacy date
  16. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  17. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  18. ^ Ken Skates, Cabinet Secretary for Transport and lead candidate for the Fflint Wrecsam seat.
  19. ^ Carrie Harper, Councillor on Wrexham County Borough Council and lead candidate for the Fflint Wrecsam seat.
  20. ^ Sam Rowlands, MS for North Wales and lead candidate for the Fflint Wrecsam seat.
  21. ^ James Evans, MS for Brecon and Radnorshire and lead candidate for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd seat.
  22. ^ Tim Sly, President of the Welsh Liberal Democrats and lead candidate for the Fflint Wrecsam seat.
  23. ^ Lee Lavery, lead candidate for the Fflint Wrecsam seat.
  24. ^ Huw Thomas, Leader of Cardiff Council and lead candidate for the Caerdydd Penarth seat.
  25. ^ Delyth Jewell, MS for South Wales East and lead candidate for the Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni seat.
  26. ^ Tom Giffard, MS for South Wales East and lead candidate for the Gŵyr Abertawe seat.
  27. ^ Corey Edwards, was the lead candidate for the Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg seat, but stepped down.
  28. ^ Tessa Marshall is the second candidate for the Caerdydd Penarth seat.
  29. ^ Huw Irranca-Davies, MS for Ogmore and lead candidate for the Afan Ogwr Rhondda seat.
  30. ^ Paul Davies, MS for Preseli Pembrokeshire and lead candidate for the Ceredigion Penfro seat.
  31. ^ Helen Jenner, deputy leader of Reform UK Wales, is the lead candidate for the Bangor Conwy Môn seat.
  32. ^ Tessa Marshall is the second candidate for the Caerdydd Penarth seat.
  33. ^ The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size.[118]

Methodology

  1. ^ Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the previous Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

See also

  • 2026 Scottish Parliament election
  • Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

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